SpaceX's June outcome commands a 68% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus on the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, 2026, and subsequent reporting of an early June roadshow followed by a mid-to-late month listing at a $1.75–$2 trillion valuation. This positioning stems from projected 2026 revenue of $22–$24 billion—driven by Starlink's subscriber growth and launch cadence—aligning with standard IPO timelines post-filing, including an imminent public prospectus expected May 15–22. August at 21.9% and July at 9.2% capture potential SEC review delays or market volatility, while "No IPO before 2027" at just 5.3% signals strong skin-in-the-game optimism amid recent Starship milestones boosting fundamentals, though lockup and liquidity rules remain key resolution risks.