OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing and $852 billion March 2026 private valuation anchor trader expectations for an eventual IPO, with the market-implied odds showing a fragmented distribution across closing market caps that reflects timing uncertainty and execution risk. Strong revenue momentum at roughly $2 billion monthly, driven by enterprise API adoption, supports the leading 1.5T-plus outcome at 34.9 percent implied probability, while persistent operating losses and competitive pressure from rivals temper enthusiasm for outsized multiples. The 9.5 percent chance of no IPO by December 31, 2027, incorporates delays signaled in mid-2026 reporting, and the wide spread across $750 billion to $1.5 trillion bands highlights sensitivity to upcoming catalysts such as further funding rounds, regulatory filings, and fourth-quarter 2026 or 2027 listing windows. Aggregated real-money positioning underscores the wisdom of crowds in pricing these financial variables.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1.5万亿以上 34.9%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 23%
1万亿–1.25万亿 21.0%
7500亿–1万亿 11%
$87,991 交易量
$87,991 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
1%
5000亿–7500亿美元
3%
7500亿–1万亿
11%
1万亿–1.25万亿
21%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
23%
1.5万亿以上
35%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
10%
1.5万亿以上 34.9%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 23%
1万亿–1.25万亿 21.0%
7500亿–1万亿 11%
$87,991 交易量
$87,991 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
$6,134 交易量
1%
5000亿–7500亿美元
$8,207 交易量
3%
7500亿–1万亿
$9,178 交易量
11%
1万亿–1.25万亿
$13,974 交易量
21%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
$8,540 交易量
23%
1.5万亿以上
$22,625 交易量
35%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
$19,333 交易量
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing and $852 billion March 2026 private valuation anchor trader expectations for an eventual IPO, with the market-implied odds showing a fragmented distribution across closing market caps that reflects timing uncertainty and execution risk. Strong revenue momentum at roughly $2 billion monthly, driven by enterprise API adoption, supports the leading 1.5T-plus outcome at 34.9 percent implied probability, while persistent operating losses and competitive pressure from rivals temper enthusiasm for outsized multiples. The 9.5 percent chance of no IPO by December 31, 2027, incorporates delays signaled in mid-2026 reporting, and the wide spread across $750 billion to $1.5 trillion bands highlights sensitivity to upcoming catalysts such as further funding rounds, regulatory filings, and fourth-quarter 2026 or 2027 listing windows. Aggregated real-money positioning underscores the wisdom of crowds in pricing these financial variables.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$87,991结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing and $852 billion March 2026 private valuation anchor trader expectations for an eventual IPO, with the market-implied odds showing a fragmented distribution across closing market caps that reflects timing uncertainty and execution risk. Strong revenue momentum at roughly $2 billion monthly, driven by enterprise API adoption, supports the leading 1.5T-plus outcome at 34.9 percent implied probability, while persistent operating losses and competitive pressure from rivals temper enthusiasm for outsized multiples. The 9.5 percent chance of no IPO by December 31, 2027, incorporates delays signaled in mid-2026 reporting, and the wide spread across $750 billion to $1.5 trillion bands highlights sensitivity to upcoming catalysts such as further funding rounds, regulatory filings, and fourth-quarter 2026 or 2027 listing windows. Aggregated real-money positioning underscores the wisdom of crowds in pricing these financial variables.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$87,991结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing and $852 billion March 2026 private valuation anchor trader expectations for an eventual IPO, with the market-implied odds showing a fragmented distribution across closing market caps that reflects timing uncertainty and execution risk. Strong revenue momentum at roughly $2 billion monthly, driven by enterprise API adoption, supports the leading 1.5T-plus outcome at 34.9 percent implied probability, while persistent operating losses and competitive pressure from rivals temper enthusiasm for outsized multiples. The 9.5 percent chance of no IPO by December 31, 2027, incorporates delays signaled in mid-2026 reporting, and the wide spread across $750 billion to $1.5 trillion bands highlights sensitivity to upcoming catalysts such as further funding rounds, regulatory filings, and fourth-quarter 2026 or 2027 listing windows. Aggregated real-money positioning underscores the wisdom of crowds in pricing these financial variables.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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