Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, driven by the March 31, 2026, closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—signaling robust capital demand amid surging AI infrastructure needs. Despite Wall Street Journal reports in late April of missed revenue and user growth targets, plus investor scrutiny over the enterprise pivot, trader consensus reflects expectations of valuation uplift from revenue acceleration and AI hype, with Q4 2026 listing plans including retail share allocation bolstering momentum. A 16.5% chance of no IPO by December 31, 2027, accounts for regulatory hurdles and recent GOP probes into CEO Sam Altman's dealings, while lower brackets trail due to growth optimism. Key catalysts include potential S-1 filing this year and Q3 earnings previews.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1.5万亿以上 68.8%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO 16%
1万亿–1.25万亿 11%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 8%
$16,653 交易量
$16,653 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
4%
5000亿–7500亿美元
4%
7500亿–1万亿
7%
1万亿–1.25万亿
11%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
8%
1.5万亿以上
69%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
16%
1.5万亿以上 68.8%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO 16%
1万亿–1.25万亿 11%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 8%
$16,653 交易量
$16,653 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
$150 交易量
4%
5000亿–7500亿美元
$319 交易量
4%
7500亿–1万亿
$453 交易量
7%
1万亿–1.25万亿
$3,229 交易量
11%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
$509 交易量
8%
1.5万亿以上
$464 交易量
69%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
$11,530 交易量
16%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, driven by the March 31, 2026, closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—signaling robust capital demand amid surging AI infrastructure needs. Despite Wall Street Journal reports in late April of missed revenue and user growth targets, plus investor scrutiny over the enterprise pivot, trader consensus reflects expectations of valuation uplift from revenue acceleration and AI hype, with Q4 2026 listing plans including retail share allocation bolstering momentum. A 16.5% chance of no IPO by December 31, 2027, accounts for regulatory hurdles and recent GOP probes into CEO Sam Altman's dealings, while lower brackets trail due to growth optimism. Key catalysts include potential S-1 filing this year and Q3 earnings previews.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$16,653结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, driven by the March 31, 2026, closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—signaling robust capital demand amid surging AI infrastructure needs. Despite Wall Street Journal reports in late April of missed revenue and user growth targets, plus investor scrutiny over the enterprise pivot, trader consensus reflects expectations of valuation uplift from revenue acceleration and AI hype, with Q4 2026 listing plans including retail share allocation bolstering momentum. A 16.5% chance of no IPO by December 31, 2027, accounts for regulatory hurdles and recent GOP probes into CEO Sam Altman's dealings, while lower brackets trail due to growth optimism. Key catalysts include potential S-1 filing this year and Q3 earnings previews.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$16,653结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are pricing a 69.3% implied probability of OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, driven by the March 31, 2026, closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—signaling robust capital demand amid surging AI infrastructure needs. Despite Wall Street Journal reports in late April of missed revenue and user growth targets, plus investor scrutiny over the enterprise pivot, trader consensus reflects expectations of valuation uplift from revenue acceleration and AI hype, with Q4 2026 listing plans including retail share allocation bolstering momentum. A 16.5% chance of no IPO by December 31, 2027, accounts for regulatory hurdles and recent GOP probes into CEO Sam Altman's dealings, while lower brackets trail due to growth optimism. Key catalysts include potential S-1 filing this year and Q3 earnings previews.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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