Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $2 trillion at 61.5% implied probability, propelled by the company's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026 and reports targeting over $2 trillion valuation amid surging Starlink revenue projections of $22–24 billion for the year. Starship's rapid reusability milestones, including upcoming V3 launches with 25–50x bandwidth gains for next-gen satellites, bolster expectations for unmatched launch cadence and constellation expansion, elevating private valuations to around $1.5 trillion via recent secondary sales. Lower brackets trail due to growth tailwinds outpacing conservative estimates, though an early June roadshow and Musk's post-IPO voting control remain key catalysts that could refine odds further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2万亿美元以上 62%
1.8万亿–2.0万亿 11%
1.6万亿–1.8万亿 8.6%
1.4万亿–1.6万亿 5.5%
$945,714 交易量
$945,714 交易量
2027-12-31
2028年前不上市
2%
低于 1.0 万亿美元
4%
1.0万亿–1.2万亿
2%
1.2万亿–1.4万亿
3%
1.4万亿–1.6万亿
5%
1.6万亿–1.8万亿
9%
1.8万亿–2.0万亿
11%
2万亿美元以上
62%
2万亿美元以上 62%
1.8万亿–2.0万亿 11%
1.6万亿–1.8万亿 8.6%
1.4万亿–1.6万亿 5.5%
$945,714 交易量
$945,714 交易量
2027-12-31
2028年前不上市
$189,370 交易量
2%
低于 1.0 万亿美元
$75,346 交易量
4%
1.0万亿–1.2万亿
$54,083 交易量
2%
1.2万亿–1.4万亿
$71,493 交易量
3%
1.4万亿–1.6万亿
$116,179 交易量
5%
1.6万亿–1.8万亿
$119,281 交易量
9%
1.8万亿–2.0万亿
$106,321 交易量
11%
2万亿美元以上
$213,641 交易量
62%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $2 trillion at 61.5% implied probability, propelled by the company's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026 and reports targeting over $2 trillion valuation amid surging Starlink revenue projections of $22–24 billion for the year. Starship's rapid reusability milestones, including upcoming V3 launches with 25–50x bandwidth gains for next-gen satellites, bolster expectations for unmatched launch cadence and constellation expansion, elevating private valuations to around $1.5 trillion via recent secondary sales. Lower brackets trail due to growth tailwinds outpacing conservative estimates, though an early June roadshow and Musk's post-IPO voting control remain key catalysts that could refine odds further.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
交易量
$945,714结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $2 trillion at 61.5% implied probability, propelled by the company's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026 and reports targeting over $2 trillion valuation amid surging Starlink revenue projections of $22–24 billion for the year. Starship's rapid reusability milestones, including upcoming V3 launches with 25–50x bandwidth gains for next-gen satellites, bolster expectations for unmatched launch cadence and constellation expansion, elevating private valuations to around $1.5 trillion via recent secondary sales. Lower brackets trail due to growth tailwinds outpacing conservative estimates, though an early June roadshow and Musk's post-IPO voting control remain key catalysts that could refine odds further.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$945,714结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $2 trillion at 61.5% implied probability, propelled by the company's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026 and reports targeting over $2 trillion valuation amid surging Starlink revenue projections of $22–24 billion for the year. Starship's rapid reusability milestones, including upcoming V3 launches with 25–50x bandwidth gains for next-gen satellites, bolster expectations for unmatched launch cadence and constellation expansion, elevating private valuations to around $1.5 trillion via recent secondary sales. Lower brackets trail due to growth tailwinds outpacing conservative estimates, though an early June roadshow and Musk's post-IPO voting control remain key catalysts that could refine odds further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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