Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 13 (51.5%) and 12 (49.0%) SpaceX orbital launches for May 2026, reflecting uncertainty over whether the company can sustain its record Falcon 9 cadence with five successful missions already completed by May 12—Starlink Group 10-38 on May 1, rideshare CAS500-2 on May 3, Starlink Group 17-29 on May 6, NROL-172 Starshield on May 12, and CRS-34 later that day. Key differentiators include booster reusability enabling rapid turnaround at SLC-40 and SLC-4E, alongside queued Starlink flights (May 15, 18, 22), Globalstar 2-R (May 17), and potential unannounced insertions amid Starlink constellation expansion. Weather-dependent windows and minor technical holds pose risks to squeezing in an eighth post-May 13 launch, with next SpaceX updates expected ahead of the May 15 Starlink liftoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于12 42%
≤8 41.2%
11 33%
13 32%
≤8
41%
9
15%
10
20%
11
33%
12
42%
13
32%
14 or more
14%
12 42%
≤8 41.2%
11 33%
13 32%
≤8
41%
9
15%
10
20%
11
33%
12
42%
13
32%
14 or more
14%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 13 (51.5%) and 12 (49.0%) SpaceX orbital launches for May 2026, reflecting uncertainty over whether the company can sustain its record Falcon 9 cadence with five successful missions already completed by May 12—Starlink Group 10-38 on May 1, rideshare CAS500-2 on May 3, Starlink Group 17-29 on May 6, NROL-172 Starshield on May 12, and CRS-34 later that day. Key differentiators include booster reusability enabling rapid turnaround at SLC-40 and SLC-4E, alongside queued Starlink flights (May 15, 18, 22), Globalstar 2-R (May 17), and potential unannounced insertions amid Starlink constellation expansion. Weather-dependent windows and minor technical holds pose risks to squeezing in an eighth post-May 13 launch, with next SpaceX updates expected ahead of the May 15 Starlink liftoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题