Trader sentiment strongly favors more than 1,250 U.S. tornadoes in 2026, consistent with long-term averages near 1,200 reports annually and early-season conditions supporting above-normal activity. Supercell thunderstorms driven by high atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico have produced typical spring outbreaks across the Great Plains and Midwest, aligning with NOAA Storm Prediction Center outlooks. The current neutral ENSO phase avoids strong suppression seen in El Niño years, while jet-stream patterns continue to favor convective environments. Upcoming updates to monthly counts and any late-season shifts in sea-surface temperatures will determine whether totals remain in the upper bins or moderate toward historical baselines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1250+ 80%
1200–1249 31.5%
1150–1199 5.3%
<950 5.0%
$71,989 交易量
$71,989 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
5%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
5%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
31%
1250+
80%
1250+ 80%
1200–1249 31.5%
1150–1199 5.3%
<950 5.0%
$71,989 交易量
$71,989 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
$22,427 交易量
5%
950–999
$2,966 交易量
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 交易量
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 交易量
5%
1100–1149
$2,041 交易量
3%
1150–1199
$2,452 交易量
5%
1200–1249
$15,173 交易量
31%
1250+
$16,666 交易量
80%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment strongly favors more than 1,250 U.S. tornadoes in 2026, consistent with long-term averages near 1,200 reports annually and early-season conditions supporting above-normal activity. Supercell thunderstorms driven by high atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico have produced typical spring outbreaks across the Great Plains and Midwest, aligning with NOAA Storm Prediction Center outlooks. The current neutral ENSO phase avoids strong suppression seen in El Niño years, while jet-stream patterns continue to favor convective environments. Upcoming updates to monthly counts and any late-season shifts in sea-surface temperatures will determine whether totals remain in the upper bins or moderate toward historical baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
交易量
$71,989结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment strongly favors more than 1,250 U.S. tornadoes in 2026, consistent with long-term averages near 1,200 reports annually and early-season conditions supporting above-normal activity. Supercell thunderstorms driven by high atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico have produced typical spring outbreaks across the Great Plains and Midwest, aligning with NOAA Storm Prediction Center outlooks. The current neutral ENSO phase avoids strong suppression seen in El Niño years, while jet-stream patterns continue to favor convective environments. Upcoming updates to monthly counts and any late-season shifts in sea-surface temperatures will determine whether totals remain in the upper bins or moderate toward historical baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$71,989结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment strongly favors more than 1,250 U.S. tornadoes in 2026, consistent with long-term averages near 1,200 reports annually and early-season conditions supporting above-normal activity. Supercell thunderstorms driven by high atmospheric instability, vertical wind shear, and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico have produced typical spring outbreaks across the Great Plains and Midwest, aligning with NOAA Storm Prediction Center outlooks. The current neutral ENSO phase avoids strong suppression seen in El Niño years, while jet-stream patterns continue to favor convective environments. Upcoming updates to monthly counts and any late-season shifts in sea-surface temperatures will determine whether totals remain in the upper bins or moderate toward historical baselines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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