**Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping Manila’s August 16 maximum temperature expectations clustered around 29–31 °C.** Official PAGASA guidance for the period highlights cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, conditions that increase cloud cover, enhance evaporative cooling, and reduce incoming solar radiation—factors that historically cap daytime highs near or slightly below the long-term August average of 30–31 °C. Recent model consensus and extended outlooks project a daily high in the 29–32 °C range, with the most probable values centered on 30 °C under continued monsoon flow. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities (30 °C at 41.5 %, 31 °C at 25.5 %, 29 °C at 19.5 %) and explains the low odds assigned to extremes above 32 °C or below 28 °C. No significant shift in steering patterns or monsoon strength has emerged in the past 48 hours that would favor a pronounced warming or cooling trend before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日马尼拉的最高温度？
8月16日马尼拉的最高温度？
30°C 42%
31°C 26%
29°C 20%
28°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
9%
29°C
20%
30°C
42%
31°C
26%
32°C
7%
33°C
1%
34°C或更高
<1%
30°C 42%
31°C 26%
29°C 20%
28°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
24°C或以下
$300 交易量
<1%
25°C
$322 交易量
<1%
26°C
$269 交易量
1%
27°C
$243 交易量
1%
28°C
$754 交易量
9%
29°C
$1,248 交易量
20%
30°C
$2,041 交易量
42%
31°C
$808 交易量
26%
32°C
$448 交易量
7%
33°C
$406 交易量
1%
34°C或更高
$413 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping Manila’s August 16 maximum temperature expectations clustered around 29–31 °C.** Official PAGASA guidance for the period highlights cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, conditions that increase cloud cover, enhance evaporative cooling, and reduce incoming solar radiation—factors that historically cap daytime highs near or slightly below the long-term August average of 30–31 °C.
Recent model consensus and extended outlooks project a daily high in the 29–32 °C range, with the most probable values centered on 30 °C under continued monsoon flow. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities (30 °C at 41.5 %, 31 °C at 25.5 %, 29 °C at 19.5 %) and explains the low odds assigned to extremes above 32 °C or below 28 °C. No significant shift in steering patterns or monsoon strength has emerged in the past 48 hours that would favor a pronounced warming or cooling trend before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$7,251结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping Manila’s August 16 maximum temperature expectations clustered around 29–31 °C.** Official PAGASA guidance for the period highlights cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, conditions that increase cloud cover, enhance evaporative cooling, and reduce incoming solar radiation—factors that historically cap daytime highs near or slightly below the long-term August average of 30–31 °C.
Recent model consensus and extended outlooks project a daily high in the 29–32 °C range, with the most probable values centered on 30 °C under continued monsoon flow. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities (30 °C at 41.5 %, 31 °C at 25.5 %, 29 °C at 19.5 %) and explains the low odds assigned to extremes above 32 °C or below 28 °C. No significant shift in steering patterns or monsoon strength has emerged in the past 48 hours that would favor a pronounced warming or cooling trend before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,251结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET**Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping Manila’s August 16 maximum temperature expectations clustered around 29–31 °C.** Official PAGASA guidance for the period highlights cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, conditions that increase cloud cover, enhance evaporative cooling, and reduce incoming solar radiation—factors that historically cap daytime highs near or slightly below the long-term August average of 30–31 °C. Recent model consensus and extended outlooks project a daily high in the 29–32 °C range, with the most probable values centered on 30 °C under continued monsoon flow. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities (30 °C at 41.5 %, 31 °C at 25.5 %, 29 °C at 19.5 %) and explains the low odds assigned to extremes above 32 °C or below 28 °C. No significant shift in steering patterns or monsoon strength has emerged in the past 48 hours that would favor a pronounced warming or cooling trend before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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