Recent short-range model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF indicates a modest warming trend into mid-August driven by southerly flow and reduced Atlantic influence, positioning Amsterdam's August 15 daily maximum near 25–27°C. This narrow spread explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 26°C (35.5%) and 27°C (30.5%), reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty from variables such as daytime cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Historical climatology shows mid-August averages near 22°C with occasional 26–28°C spikes under high-pressure ridges, while ensemble spreads typically widen by 1–2°C within 48 hours of the event. Updated runs and observational adjustments ahead of resolution will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward the upper or lower end of this range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月15日阿姆斯特丹气温最高？
8月15日阿姆斯特丹气温最高？
26°C 32%
27°C 32%
25°C 18%
24°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
20°C或以下
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
12%
25°C
18%
26°C
32%
27°C
32%
28°C
6%
29°C
3%
30°C或更高
1%
26°C 32%
27°C 32%
25°C 18%
24°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
20°C或以下
$0 交易量
<1%
21°C
$0 交易量
1%
22°C
$160 交易量
2%
23°C
$235 交易量
4%
24°C
$278 交易量
12%
25°C
$28 交易量
18%
26°C
$3 交易量
32%
27°C
$5 交易量
32%
28°C
$0 交易量
6%
29°C
$17 交易量
3%
30°C或更高
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF indicates a modest warming trend into mid-August driven by southerly flow and reduced Atlantic influence, positioning Amsterdam's August 15 daily maximum near 25–27°C. This narrow spread explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 26°C (35.5%) and 27°C (30.5%), reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty from variables such as daytime cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Historical climatology shows mid-August averages near 22°C with occasional 26–28°C spikes under high-pressure ridges, while ensemble spreads typically widen by 1–2°C within 48 hours of the event. Updated runs and observational adjustments ahead of resolution will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward the upper or lower end of this range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$548结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF indicates a modest warming trend into mid-August driven by southerly flow and reduced Atlantic influence, positioning Amsterdam's August 15 daily maximum near 25–27°C. This narrow spread explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 26°C (35.5%) and 27°C (30.5%), reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty from variables such as daytime cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Historical climatology shows mid-August averages near 22°C with occasional 26–28°C spikes under high-pressure ridges, while ensemble spreads typically widen by 1–2°C within 48 hours of the event. Updated runs and observational adjustments ahead of resolution will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward the upper or lower end of this range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$548结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent short-range model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF indicates a modest warming trend into mid-August driven by southerly flow and reduced Atlantic influence, positioning Amsterdam's August 15 daily maximum near 25–27°C. This narrow spread explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 26°C (35.5%) and 27°C (30.5%), reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty from variables such as daytime cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Historical climatology shows mid-August averages near 22°C with occasional 26–28°C spikes under high-pressure ridges, while ensemble spreads typically widen by 1–2°C within 48 hours of the event. Updated runs and observational adjustments ahead of resolution will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward the upper or lower end of this range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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