Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models point to a daytime maximum near 30–31°C for Tokyo on August 16, driven by a persistent Pacific High maintaining warm advection while scattered cloud cover and possible sea-breeze influences introduce modest cooling. The tight clustering between 29°C and 30°C market shares reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island amplification, and any late-day convective development that could cap the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows typical maxima of 30–32°C with high humidity, yet short-term model runs diverge slightly on insolation and wind patterns, keeping 28°C and 31°C as plausible tails. Updated JMA guidance and observational verification tomorrow morning will resolve the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日东京气温最高？
8月16日东京气温最高？
30°C 39%
29°C 38%
28°C 14%
31°C 8%
最新
$11,383 交易量
最新
$11,383 交易量
2026-08-16
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
14%
29°C
38%
30°C
39%
31°C
8%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 39%
29°C 38%
28°C 14%
31°C 8%
最新
$11,383 交易量
最新
$11,383 交易量
2026-08-16
24°C or below
$926 交易量
<1%
25°C
$354 交易量
<1%
26°C
$399 交易量
1%
27°C
$1,018 交易量
4%
28°C
$707 交易量
14%
29°C
$2,056 交易量
38%
30°C
$2,485 交易量
39%
31°C
$565 交易量
8%
32°C
$1,426 交易量
3%
33°C
$1,198 交易量
2%
34°C or higher
$249 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models point to a daytime maximum near 30–31°C for Tokyo on August 16, driven by a persistent Pacific High maintaining warm advection while scattered cloud cover and possible sea-breeze influences introduce modest cooling. The tight clustering between 29°C and 30°C market shares reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island amplification, and any late-day convective development that could cap the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows typical maxima of 30–32°C with high humidity, yet short-term model runs diverge slightly on insolation and wind patterns, keeping 28°C and 31°C as plausible tails. Updated JMA guidance and observational verification tomorrow morning will resolve the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$11,383结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models point to a daytime maximum near 30–31°C for Tokyo on August 16, driven by a persistent Pacific High maintaining warm advection while scattered cloud cover and possible sea-breeze influences introduce modest cooling. The tight clustering between 29°C and 30°C market shares reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island amplification, and any late-day convective development that could cap the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows typical maxima of 30–32°C with high humidity, yet short-term model runs diverge slightly on insolation and wind patterns, keeping 28°C and 31°C as plausible tails. Updated JMA guidance and observational verification tomorrow morning will resolve the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,383结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models point to a daytime maximum near 30–31°C for Tokyo on August 16, driven by a persistent Pacific High maintaining warm advection while scattered cloud cover and possible sea-breeze influences introduce modest cooling. The tight clustering between 29°C and 30°C market shares reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island amplification, and any late-day convective development that could cap the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows typical maxima of 30–32°C with high humidity, yet short-term model runs diverge slightly on insolation and wind patterns, keeping 28°C and 31°C as plausible tails. Updated JMA guidance and observational verification tomorrow morning will resolve the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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