The leading market-implied outcomes cluster around 66–71°F because San Francisco’s August climate is strongly moderated by the persistent marine layer—a cool, moist air mass from the Pacific reinforced by coastal upwelling and onshore flow. This setup typically caps afternoon highs near 67–70°F even under mostly sunny conditions once morning stratus mixes out. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models for August 14, 2026, converge on a daily maximum of 67–69°F, consistent with long-term climatology showing August highs averaging near 70°F but rarely exceeding the mid-70s along the immediate coast. Recent redevelopment of the marine layer after earlier interior heat has further suppressed warming, keeping probabilities for 72°F or higher below 3 percent. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at downtown or airport stations, with any late-day clearing or wind shift offering only modest upside potential.