National Weather Service forecasts peg the San Francisco high near 68°F on August 15, driven by persistent marine layer cloud cover and moderate onshore flow that suppress daytime heating. This aligns with the market's leading 68-69°F bin at 40.5% implied probability and the clustered 66-71°F outcomes, reflecting typical mid-August climatology where Pacific sea breezes and coastal upwelling keep highs in the mid-to-upper 60s more often than the seasonal 70°F average. Recent model consensus shows no strong offshore flow or heat advection to push temperatures higher, though slight variations in cloud timing or wind strength could shift results within the 66-71°F range. Updated NWS guidance ahead of resolution will provide the clearest signal on exact thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月15日旧金山气温最高？
8月15日旧金山气温最高？
68-69°F 41%
70-71°F 27%
66-67°F 20%
72-73°F 7%
最新
$10,525 交易量
最新
$10,525 交易量
2026-08-15
59°F或以下
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
5%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
41%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F或更高
<1%
68-69°F 41%
70-71°F 27%
66-67°F 20%
72-73°F 7%
最新
$10,525 交易量
最新
$10,525 交易量
2026-08-15
59°F或以下
$756 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$510 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$1,106 交易量
1%
64-65°F
$232 交易量
5%
66-67°F
$762 交易量
20%
68-69°F
$2,897 交易量
41%
70-71°F
$1,769 交易量
27%
72-73°F
$809 交易量
7%
74-75°F
$594 交易量
1%
76-77°F
$469 交易量
<1%
78°F或更高
$621 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts peg the San Francisco high near 68°F on August 15, driven by persistent marine layer cloud cover and moderate onshore flow that suppress daytime heating. This aligns with the market's leading 68-69°F bin at 40.5% implied probability and the clustered 66-71°F outcomes, reflecting typical mid-August climatology where Pacific sea breezes and coastal upwelling keep highs in the mid-to-upper 60s more often than the seasonal 70°F average. Recent model consensus shows no strong offshore flow or heat advection to push temperatures higher, though slight variations in cloud timing or wind strength could shift results within the 66-71°F range. Updated NWS guidance ahead of resolution will provide the clearest signal on exact thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
交易量
$10,525结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts peg the San Francisco high near 68°F on August 15, driven by persistent marine layer cloud cover and moderate onshore flow that suppress daytime heating. This aligns with the market's leading 68-69°F bin at 40.5% implied probability and the clustered 66-71°F outcomes, reflecting typical mid-August climatology where Pacific sea breezes and coastal upwelling keep highs in the mid-to-upper 60s more often than the seasonal 70°F average. Recent model consensus shows no strong offshore flow or heat advection to push temperatures higher, though slight variations in cloud timing or wind strength could shift results within the 66-71°F range. Updated NWS guidance ahead of resolution will provide the clearest signal on exact thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,525结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETNational Weather Service forecasts peg the San Francisco high near 68°F on August 15, driven by persistent marine layer cloud cover and moderate onshore flow that suppress daytime heating. This aligns with the market's leading 68-69°F bin at 40.5% implied probability and the clustered 66-71°F outcomes, reflecting typical mid-August climatology where Pacific sea breezes and coastal upwelling keep highs in the mid-to-upper 60s more often than the seasonal 70°F average. Recent model consensus shows no strong offshore flow or heat advection to push temperatures higher, though slight variations in cloud timing or wind strength could shift results within the 66-71°F range. Updated NWS guidance ahead of resolution will provide the clearest signal on exact thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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