**Persistent warm, moist air mass under light easterly flow is keeping overnight lows elevated in Miami, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for a minimum near 81–82°F on August 16.** Recent observations show daily minima around 78°F, while model guidance and the extended outlook from AccuWeather indicate overnight temperatures between 78–83°F amid typical mid-August humidity levels that limit radiational cooling. High dew points and the absence of any strong cold advection or clear, dry conditions have pushed trader consensus toward the 80–83°F bins, which together command roughly 75% implied probability. The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has not introduced tropical moisture or wind shifts that would otherwise alter the local temperature profile. With resolution hinging on the official Miami International Airport reading, the next NWS forecast updates and any shifts in cloud cover or wind direction remain the key variables that could move the market.