Recent forecast guidance points to a post-heatwave cooldown across northern France, with a shift toward increased cloud cover and lighter winds limiting overnight radiative cooling in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering near 19°C on August 16, consistent with the market’s leading 40.5% implied probability, while the 25% chance assigned to 18°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in model runs regarding the timing and depth of the cooler air mass. Historical August climatology shows typical lows of 14–16°C, yet current conditions—elevated soil and boundary-layer warmth after midweek peaks near 33–38°C—support the higher trader consensus. Updated high-resolution model outputs and Météo-France guidance expected within the next 24 hours will further refine these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日巴黎最低气温？
8月16日巴黎最低气温？
19°C 41%
18°C或以下 24%
20°C 21%
21°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
18°C或以下
24%
19°C
41%
20°C
21%
21°C
8%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C或更高
<1%
19°C 41%
18°C或以下 24%
20°C 21%
21°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
18°C或以下
$1,810 交易量
24%
19°C
$1,785 交易量
41%
20°C
$297 交易量
21%
21°C
$664 交易量
8%
22°C
$156 交易量
2%
23°C
$376 交易量
1%
24°C
$72 交易量
<1%
25°C
$67 交易量
<1%
26°C
$67 交易量
<1%
27°C
$67 交易量
<1%
28°C或更高
$67 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance points to a post-heatwave cooldown across northern France, with a shift toward increased cloud cover and lighter winds limiting overnight radiative cooling in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering near 19°C on August 16, consistent with the market’s leading 40.5% implied probability, while the 25% chance assigned to 18°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in model runs regarding the timing and depth of the cooler air mass. Historical August climatology shows typical lows of 14–16°C, yet current conditions—elevated soil and boundary-layer warmth after midweek peaks near 33–38°C—support the higher trader consensus. Updated high-resolution model outputs and Météo-France guidance expected within the next 24 hours will further refine these odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
交易量
$5,428结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance points to a post-heatwave cooldown across northern France, with a shift toward increased cloud cover and lighter winds limiting overnight radiative cooling in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering near 19°C on August 16, consistent with the market’s leading 40.5% implied probability, while the 25% chance assigned to 18°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in model runs regarding the timing and depth of the cooler air mass. Historical August climatology shows typical lows of 14–16°C, yet current conditions—elevated soil and boundary-layer warmth after midweek peaks near 33–38°C—support the higher trader consensus. Updated high-resolution model outputs and Météo-France guidance expected within the next 24 hours will further refine these odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,428结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETRecent forecast guidance points to a post-heatwave cooldown across northern France, with a shift toward increased cloud cover and lighter winds limiting overnight radiative cooling in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering near 19°C on August 16, consistent with the market’s leading 40.5% implied probability, while the 25% chance assigned to 18°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in model runs regarding the timing and depth of the cooler air mass. Historical August climatology shows typical lows of 14–16°C, yet current conditions—elevated soil and boundary-layer warmth after midweek peaks near 33–38°C—support the higher trader consensus. Updated high-resolution model outputs and Météo-France guidance expected within the next 24 hours will further refine these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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