Recent cooling after an intense midweek heat peak (with highs near 38°C) has positioned 29–31°C as the consensus range for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 16, 2026. Official guidance from Météo-France and models such as those referenced by BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate a shift to partly cloudy conditions with light northerly flow, limiting further intensification while still allowing afternoon readings around 28–29°C under lingering warm advection. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly on 30°C (47.5%) and 31°C (28.5%), reflecting model consensus tempered by residual uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day thunderstorm development that could cap the peak. This aligns with the post-heatwave pattern, where historical analogs show rapid moderation when Atlantic influences strengthen. Updated forecast runs and Météo-France briefings through August 15 remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日巴黎气温最高？
8月16日巴黎气温最高？
30°C 45%
31°C 31%
29°C 17%
32°C 7.1%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
17%
30°C
45%
31°C
31%
32°C
7%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 45%
31°C 31%
29°C 17%
32°C 7.1%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
25°C or below
$206 交易量
<1%
26°C
$366 交易量
<1%
27°C
$470 交易量
2%
28°C
$931 交易量
4%
29°C
$1,203 交易量
17%
30°C
$2,305 交易量
45%
31°C
$1,933 交易量
31%
32°C
$1,142 交易量
7%
33°C
$635 交易量
1%
34°C
$326 交易量
<1%
35°C or higher
$296 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling after an intense midweek heat peak (with highs near 38°C) has positioned 29–31°C as the consensus range for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 16, 2026. Official guidance from Météo-France and models such as those referenced by BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate a shift to partly cloudy conditions with light northerly flow, limiting further intensification while still allowing afternoon readings around 28–29°C under lingering warm advection. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly on 30°C (47.5%) and 31°C (28.5%), reflecting model consensus tempered by residual uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day thunderstorm development that could cap the peak. This aligns with the post-heatwave pattern, where historical analogs show rapid moderation when Atlantic influences strengthen. Updated forecast runs and Météo-France briefings through August 15 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$9,813结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling after an intense midweek heat peak (with highs near 38°C) has positioned 29–31°C as the consensus range for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 16, 2026. Official guidance from Météo-France and models such as those referenced by BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate a shift to partly cloudy conditions with light northerly flow, limiting further intensification while still allowing afternoon readings around 28–29°C under lingering warm advection. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly on 30°C (47.5%) and 31°C (28.5%), reflecting model consensus tempered by residual uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day thunderstorm development that could cap the peak. This aligns with the post-heatwave pattern, where historical analogs show rapid moderation when Atlantic influences strengthen. Updated forecast runs and Météo-France briefings through August 15 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,813结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETRecent cooling after an intense midweek heat peak (with highs near 38°C) has positioned 29–31°C as the consensus range for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 16, 2026. Official guidance from Météo-France and models such as those referenced by BBC Weather and timeanddate.com indicate a shift to partly cloudy conditions with light northerly flow, limiting further intensification while still allowing afternoon readings around 28–29°C under lingering warm advection. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly on 30°C (47.5%) and 31°C (28.5%), reflecting model consensus tempered by residual uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day thunderstorm development that could cap the peak. This aligns with the post-heatwave pattern, where historical analogs show rapid moderation when Atlantic influences strengthen. Updated forecast runs and Météo-France briefings through August 15 remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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