Global seismic rates from USGS records show roughly 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week on average, driven by steady tectonic strain release along major plate boundaries. The market’s leading 41.5% implied probability for zero such quakes in the August 17–23 window reflects this baseline Poisson-like distribution, with the 30.5% for one event capturing the typical weekly expectation. Recent large events, including the M7.7 Indonesia and M7.4 Colombia shocks earlier in August 2026, have raised aftershock potential but rarely produce additional M6.5+ mainshocks within days. Model consensus and historical analogs indicate limited short-term clustering at this magnitude threshold, keeping higher counts (three or more) at low single-digit odds absent new swarm activity or a major foreshock sequence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月17日至8月23日发生了多少次6.5级或以上的地震？
8月17日至8月23日发生了多少次6.5级或以上的地震？
0 42%
1 31%
2 18%
3 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
0
42%
1
31%
2
18%
3
8%
4
3%
5
6%
>5
1%
0 42%
1 31%
2 18%
3 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
0
$112 交易量
42%
1
$45 交易量
31%
2
$89 交易量
18%
3
$106 交易量
8%
4
$114 交易量
3%
5
$78 交易量
6%
>5
$21 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic rates from USGS records show roughly 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week on average, driven by steady tectonic strain release along major plate boundaries. The market’s leading 41.5% implied probability for zero such quakes in the August 17–23 window reflects this baseline Poisson-like distribution, with the 30.5% for one event capturing the typical weekly expectation. Recent large events, including the M7.7 Indonesia and M7.4 Colombia shocks earlier in August 2026, have raised aftershock potential but rarely produce additional M6.5+ mainshocks within days. Model consensus and historical analogs indicate limited short-term clustering at this magnitude threshold, keeping higher counts (three or more) at low single-digit odds absent new swarm activity or a major foreshock sequence.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$566结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic rates from USGS records show roughly 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week on average, driven by steady tectonic strain release along major plate boundaries. The market’s leading 41.5% implied probability for zero such quakes in the August 17–23 window reflects this baseline Poisson-like distribution, with the 30.5% for one event capturing the typical weekly expectation. Recent large events, including the M7.7 Indonesia and M7.4 Colombia shocks earlier in August 2026, have raised aftershock potential but rarely produce additional M6.5+ mainshocks within days. Model consensus and historical analogs indicate limited short-term clustering at this magnitude threshold, keeping higher counts (three or more) at low single-digit odds absent new swarm activity or a major foreshock sequence.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$566结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETGlobal seismic rates from USGS records show roughly 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week on average, driven by steady tectonic strain release along major plate boundaries. The market’s leading 41.5% implied probability for zero such quakes in the August 17–23 window reflects this baseline Poisson-like distribution, with the 30.5% for one event capturing the typical weekly expectation. Recent large events, including the M7.7 Indonesia and M7.4 Colombia shocks earlier in August 2026, have raised aftershock potential but rarely produce additional M6.5+ mainshocks within days. Model consensus and historical analogs indicate limited short-term clustering at this magnitude threshold, keeping higher counts (three or more) at low single-digit odds absent new swarm activity or a major foreshock sequence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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