Global seismicity for magnitude 5.5 and above averages roughly 8–12 events per week according to USGS historical catalogs, placing the market’s closely bunched central outcomes (7–13) in line with baseline rates. Absent any large aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or elevated swarm activity in the past 30 days, traders are weighting the stochastic variability of tectonic strain release across major plate boundaries. Short-term forecasts carry wide uncertainty ranges because individual events remain unpredictable beyond statistical models; fresh USGS weekly compilations and any new magnitude-6+ detections will be the next data points capable of shifting implied probabilities.