Trader consensus strongly favors no major volcano eruption rated Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with market-implied odds at 91.5%, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—none have occurred globally since Mount Pinatubo in 1991, averaging once every 20–50 years based on historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS data. Current monitoring shows no volcanoes exhibiting precursors like massive magma influx, rapid ground deformation, or escalating seismicity indicative of VEI ≥6 potential; ongoing activity at sites like Kīlauea and Shishaldin remains low-level (VEI ≤2). Realistic challenges include unforeseen escalation at restless systems such as Axial Seamount or Iwo Jima, though models indicate low probability absent new seismic or geodetic signals, with USGS weekly updates providing key near-term insights.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$80,358 交易量
$80,358 交易量
2027-03-31
是
$80,358 交易量
$80,358 交易量
2027-03-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors no major volcano eruption rated Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with market-implied odds at 91.5%, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—none have occurred globally since Mount Pinatubo in 1991, averaging once every 20–50 years based on historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS data. Current monitoring shows no volcanoes exhibiting precursors like massive magma influx, rapid ground deformation, or escalating seismicity indicative of VEI ≥6 potential; ongoing activity at sites like Kīlauea and Shishaldin remains low-level (VEI ≤2). Realistic challenges include unforeseen escalation at restless systems such as Axial Seamount or Iwo Jima, though models indicate low probability absent new seismic or geodetic signals, with USGS weekly updates providing key near-term insights.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$80,358结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors no major volcano eruption rated Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with market-implied odds at 91.5%, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—none have occurred globally since Mount Pinatubo in 1991, averaging once every 20–50 years based on historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS data. Current monitoring shows no volcanoes exhibiting precursors like massive magma influx, rapid ground deformation, or escalating seismicity indicative of VEI ≥6 potential; ongoing activity at sites like Kīlauea and Shishaldin remains low-level (VEI ≤2). Realistic challenges include unforeseen escalation at restless systems such as Axial Seamount or Iwo Jima, though models indicate low probability absent new seismic or geodetic signals, with USGS weekly updates providing key near-term insights.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$80,358结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no major volcano eruption rated Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, with market-implied odds at 91.5%, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—none have occurred globally since Mount Pinatubo in 1991, averaging once every 20–50 years based on historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS data. Current monitoring shows no volcanoes exhibiting precursors like massive magma influx, rapid ground deformation, or escalating seismicity indicative of VEI ≥6 potential; ongoing activity at sites like Kīlauea and Shishaldin remains low-level (VEI ≤2). Realistic challenges include unforeseen escalation at restless systems such as Axial Seamount or Iwo Jima, though models indicate low probability absent new seismic or geodetic signals, with USGS weekly updates providing key near-term insights.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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