Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, driven by INGV monitoring of seismic swarms, sulfur dioxide emissions, and ground deformation, underpins the 60% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. A January 1 effusive phase produced fissure-fed lava flows extending 3.2 km in Valle del Bove, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova that generated ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 earthquake. April summit activity included moderate thermal anomalies reaching 28 MW and geochemical evidence of rare 80-kilometer-deep mantle-sourced magma. While current events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna’s pattern of frequent paroxysmal episodes—such as the 2018 event—combined with continued deep recharge suggests escalation remains plausible. Weekly INGV bulletins will highlight any intensification ahead of potential resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, driven by INGV monitoring of seismic swarms, sulfur dioxide emissions, and ground deformation, underpins the 60% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. A January 1 effusive phase produced fissure-fed lava flows extending 3.2 km in Valle del Bove, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova that generated ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 earthquake. April summit activity included moderate thermal anomalies reaching 28 MW and geochemical evidence of rare 80-kilometer-deep mantle-sourced magma. While current events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna’s pattern of frequent paroxysmal episodes—such as the 2018 event—combined with continued deep recharge suggests escalation remains plausible. Weekly INGV bulletins will highlight any intensification ahead of potential resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
市场开放时间： Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
交易量
$16结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, driven by INGV monitoring of seismic swarms, sulfur dioxide emissions, and ground deformation, underpins the 60% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. A January 1 effusive phase produced fissure-fed lava flows extending 3.2 km in Valle del Bove, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova that generated ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 earthquake. April summit activity included moderate thermal anomalies reaching 28 MW and geochemical evidence of rare 80-kilometer-deep mantle-sourced magma. While current events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna’s pattern of frequent paroxysmal episodes—such as the 2018 event—combined with continued deep recharge suggests escalation remains plausible. Weekly INGV bulletins will highlight any intensification ahead of potential resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
交易量
$16结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, driven by INGV monitoring of seismic swarms, sulfur dioxide emissions, and ground deformation, underpins the 60% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. A January 1 effusive phase produced fissure-fed lava flows extending 3.2 km in Valle del Bove, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova that generated ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 earthquake. April summit activity included moderate thermal anomalies reaching 28 MW and geochemical evidence of rare 80-kilometer-deep mantle-sourced magma. While current events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna’s pattern of frequent paroxysmal episodes—such as the 2018 event—combined with continued deep recharge suggests escalation remains plausible. Weekly INGV bulletins will highlight any intensification ahead of potential resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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