**A heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly flow is keeping overnight lows elevated across southeast England, pushing the market-implied probability for London’s July 9 minimum toward the 18–20 °C range.** Current model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows daytime maxima of 27–34 °C mid-week, with “tropical nights” where urban heat-island effects and light winds limit radiative cooling, holding minima near or above 18 °C. This aligns with the tight clustering of leading outcomes (18 °C or below at 47.5 %, 20 °C at 44.5 %). Forecasters note that exact nocturnal temperatures remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture; later model runs could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C either way. Historical July averages (around 14–15 °C) highlight the anomaly, but traders are weighting the short-term dynamical forecast more heavily as resolution nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lowest temperature in London on July 9?
Lowest temperature in London on July 9?
22°C 37%
21°C 30%
20°C 14%
23°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-07-09
18°C or below
4%
19°C
3%
20°C
14%
21°C
30%
22°C
37%
23°C
9%
24°C
5%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 37%
21°C 30%
20°C 14%
23°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-07-09
18°C or below
$31 交易量
4%
19°C
$8 交易量
3%
20°C
$0 交易量
14%
21°C
$118 交易量
30%
22°C
$1 交易量
37%
23°C
$1 交易量
9%
24°C
$61 交易量
5%
25°C
$5 交易量
1%
26°C
$27 交易量
1%
27°C
$22 交易量
<1%
28°C or higher
$22 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly flow is keeping overnight lows elevated across southeast England, pushing the market-implied probability for London’s July 9 minimum toward the 18–20 °C range.**
Current model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows daytime maxima of 27–34 °C mid-week, with “tropical nights” where urban heat-island effects and light winds limit radiative cooling, holding minima near or above 18 °C. This aligns with the tight clustering of leading outcomes (18 °C or below at 47.5 %, 20 °C at 44.5 %). Forecasters note that exact nocturnal temperatures remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture; later model runs could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C either way. Historical July averages (around 14–15 °C) highlight the anomaly, but traders are weighting the short-term dynamical forecast more heavily as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$295结束日期
2026-07-09市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly flow is keeping overnight lows elevated across southeast England, pushing the market-implied probability for London’s July 9 minimum toward the 18–20 °C range.**
Current model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows daytime maxima of 27–34 °C mid-week, with “tropical nights” where urban heat-island effects and light winds limit radiative cooling, holding minima near or above 18 °C. This aligns with the tight clustering of leading outcomes (18 °C or below at 47.5 %, 20 °C at 44.5 %). Forecasters note that exact nocturnal temperatures remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture; later model runs could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C either way. Historical July averages (around 14–15 °C) highlight the anomaly, but traders are weighting the short-term dynamical forecast more heavily as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$295结束日期
2026-07-09市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**A heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly flow is keeping overnight lows elevated across southeast England, pushing the market-implied probability for London’s July 9 minimum toward the 18–20 °C range.** Current model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows daytime maxima of 27–34 °C mid-week, with “tropical nights” where urban heat-island effects and light winds limit radiative cooling, holding minima near or above 18 °C. This aligns with the tight clustering of leading outcomes (18 °C or below at 47.5 %, 20 °C at 44.5 %). Forecasters note that exact nocturnal temperatures remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture; later model runs could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C either way. Historical July averages (around 14–15 °C) highlight the anomaly, but traders are weighting the short-term dynamical forecast more heavily as resolution nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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