The market-implied 63% probability of zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events, with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records showing only sporadic occurrences amid dozens of smaller eruptions annually. Through mid-August, confirmed activity remains limited to lower-intensity events at sites like Etna and Sakurajima, producing modest ash plumes without reaching the ≥0.1 km³ ejecta volume threshold that defines VEI 4 on the scale. Official USGS and GVP monitoring reports no major explosive phases or caldera unrest capable of rapid escalation, though seasonal increases in seismicity at select stratovolcanoes could alter outcomes if new data emerge before year-end. Trader consensus aligns with climatological baselines where VEI 4+ events average fewer than one per year globally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,068 交易量
$1,156,068 交易量
2026-12-31
0
63%
1
20%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,068 交易量
$1,156,068 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$499,082 交易量
63%
1
$273,925 交易量
20%
2
$40,877 交易量
4%
3
$31,654 交易量
1%
4
$35,005 交易量
1%
5+
$275,525 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market-implied 63% probability of zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events, with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records showing only sporadic occurrences amid dozens of smaller eruptions annually. Through mid-August, confirmed activity remains limited to lower-intensity events at sites like Etna and Sakurajima, producing modest ash plumes without reaching the ≥0.1 km³ ejecta volume threshold that defines VEI 4 on the scale. Official USGS and GVP monitoring reports no major explosive phases or caldera unrest capable of rapid escalation, though seasonal increases in seismicity at select stratovolcanoes could alter outcomes if new data emerge before year-end. Trader consensus aligns with climatological baselines where VEI 4+ events average fewer than one per year globally.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,156,068结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market-implied 63% probability of zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events, with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records showing only sporadic occurrences amid dozens of smaller eruptions annually. Through mid-August, confirmed activity remains limited to lower-intensity events at sites like Etna and Sakurajima, producing modest ash plumes without reaching the ≥0.1 km³ ejecta volume threshold that defines VEI 4 on the scale. Official USGS and GVP monitoring reports no major explosive phases or caldera unrest capable of rapid escalation, though seasonal increases in seismicity at select stratovolcanoes could alter outcomes if new data emerge before year-end. Trader consensus aligns with climatological baselines where VEI 4+ events average fewer than one per year globally.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$1,156,068结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market-implied 63% probability of zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events, with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records showing only sporadic occurrences amid dozens of smaller eruptions annually. Through mid-August, confirmed activity remains limited to lower-intensity events at sites like Etna and Sakurajima, producing modest ash plumes without reaching the ≥0.1 km³ ejecta volume threshold that defines VEI 4 on the scale. Official USGS and GVP monitoring reports no major explosive phases or caldera unrest capable of rapid escalation, though seasonal increases in seismicity at select stratovolcanoes could alter outcomes if new data emerge before year-end. Trader consensus aligns with climatological baselines where VEI 4+ events average fewer than one per year globally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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