No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through mid-May 2026, consistent with the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record of zero such events in 2025 and a long-term annual average of zero to two worldwide. On the Volcanic Explosivity Index, these events require at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km, thresholds met only rarely by the roughly 40–50 volcanoes typically under observation. Current unrest at sites such as Semeru, Kīlauea, and Popocatépetl remains below VEI 4 criteria, with ongoing smaller ash emissions and lava flows. Traders assign the highest implied probability to zero or one event for the full year because historical frequency and the year-to-date quiet period support limited escalation before resolution at year-end.