Traders assign the highest implied probability (63.5%) to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions for the full year 2026 because no such events have been confirmed through mid-August despite 47 total eruptions documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Large explosive events (plume heights typically exceeding 10 km on the VEI scale) remain statistically infrequent, occurring on average fewer than once annually in recent decades, and current monitoring shows predominantly effusive or lower-VEI activity at sites such as Kīlauea, Lewotobi, and Dukono. With 4.5 months left, the market prices in the limited window for new unrest or revised assessments from NOAA/USGS or GVP reports to shift the count above one.