Large explosive eruptions rated VEI ≥4 remain statistically uncommon, occurring globally only a handful of times per decade on average. As of mid-August 2026, official monitoring from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and national agencies shows no confirmed events meeting this threshold, with documented activity at sites like Dukono (VEI 3 in May), Kanlaon, and Etna limited to lower explosivity or effusive phases. Trader consensus favoring zero (70.5%) reflects this absence of precursors such as major unrest, rapid magma ascent signals, or model indications of intensification through year-end. Remaining months carry inherent uncertainty from possible rapid escalation at restless systems, though baseline rates and current data continue to support low implied odds for one or more events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,068 交易量
$1,156,068 交易量
2026-12-31
0
71%
1
18%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,068 交易量
$1,156,068 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$499,082 交易量
71%
1
$273,925 交易量
18%
2
$40,877 交易量
4%
3
$31,654 交易量
1%
4
$35,005 交易量
1%
5+
$275,525 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Large explosive eruptions rated VEI ≥4 remain statistically uncommon, occurring globally only a handful of times per decade on average. As of mid-August 2026, official monitoring from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and national agencies shows no confirmed events meeting this threshold, with documented activity at sites like Dukono (VEI 3 in May), Kanlaon, and Etna limited to lower explosivity or effusive phases. Trader consensus favoring zero (70.5%) reflects this absence of precursors such as major unrest, rapid magma ascent signals, or model indications of intensification through year-end. Remaining months carry inherent uncertainty from possible rapid escalation at restless systems, though baseline rates and current data continue to support low implied odds for one or more events.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,156,068结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Large explosive eruptions rated VEI ≥4 remain statistically uncommon, occurring globally only a handful of times per decade on average. As of mid-August 2026, official monitoring from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and national agencies shows no confirmed events meeting this threshold, with documented activity at sites like Dukono (VEI 3 in May), Kanlaon, and Etna limited to lower explosivity or effusive phases. Trader consensus favoring zero (70.5%) reflects this absence of precursors such as major unrest, rapid magma ascent signals, or model indications of intensification through year-end. Remaining months carry inherent uncertainty from possible rapid escalation at restless systems, though baseline rates and current data continue to support low implied odds for one or more events.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$1,156,068结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Large explosive eruptions rated VEI ≥4 remain statistically uncommon, occurring globally only a handful of times per decade on average. As of mid-August 2026, official monitoring from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and national agencies shows no confirmed events meeting this threshold, with documented activity at sites like Dukono (VEI 3 in May), Kanlaon, and Etna limited to lower explosivity or effusive phases. Trader consensus favoring zero (70.5%) reflects this absence of precursors such as major unrest, rapid magma ascent signals, or model indications of intensification through year-end. Remaining months carry inherent uncertainty from possible rapid escalation at restless systems, though baseline rates and current data continue to support low implied odds for one or more events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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