Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.3% implied probability against a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, anchored by robust WHO and CDC surveillance detecting no novel betacoronavirus—distinct from SARS-CoV-2—with sustained human-to-human transmission or public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) criteria through mid-May. COVID-19 persists endemically, with global testing at lows of 64,000 samples weekly in March and monitored variants like BA.3.2 posing no escalation risk, per official dashboards. Recent alerts center on hantavirus clusters and other pathogens like H5N1, not coronaviruses. Key evidence includes six years of post-COVID preparedness gains, though funding gaps persist. Realistic challenges: undetected zoonotic spillover or rapid variant evolution, with upcoming WHO vaccine antigen deliberations in May offering fresh data.