Traders assign a 79% probability to no new pandemic before 2028 primarily because no novel pathogen has demonstrated sustained global human-to-human transmission through mid-2026. Official WHO and CDC surveillance shows the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak remains regionally contained in the DRC and Uganda with hundreds of cases, while hantavirus clusters, mpox clade I, and dengue surges stay geographically limited without exponential growth or reassortment. Post-COVID genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have strengthened detection of zoonotic spillovers from animal reservoirs, reducing escalation risk despite ongoing threats like avian influenza. Resolution hinges on WHO pandemic criteria, and the absence of qualifying developments through the first half of 2026 underpins current market-implied odds.