Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain skepticism for a human moon landing in 2026, driven by NASA's repeated delays to the Artemis III mission—now targeting no earlier than late 2027—following SpaceX and Blue Origin's confirmation that their Human Landing Systems (HLS), including Starship HLS, won't be crewed-ready this year. The successful Artemis II lunar flyby in early April 2026 validated the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft but underscored persistent lander integration challenges, such as in-orbit refueling demos and spacesuit testing, with no viable 2026 path from China (targeting 2030) or private efforts. While accelerated Starship tests or regulatory fast-tracks could theoretically shift odds, historical timelines and technical hurdles make a year-end surprise improbable.