The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
<1% 概率
$1,967,148 交易量
$1,967,148 交易量
2026-12-31
是
<1% 概率
$1,967,148 交易量
$1,967,148 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$1,967,148结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,967,148结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题