NASA's Artemis program revisions have eliminated any realistic path to a crewed lunar landing in 2026, driving the near-certain trader consensus. Artemis III was restructured into a 2027 low-Earth orbit test of commercial human landing systems from SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon, pushing the first surface mission to Artemis IV in 2028. Artemis II's April 2026 flyby confirmed the timeline shift, while supply chain delays, propellant transfer demos, and New Glenn/Starship integration issues add further slippage risk. China's pre-2030 target and uncrewed commercial lander slips to 2027 reinforce the barrier. Only an unforeseen acceleration of private Starship capabilities could alter this, though current hardware and regulatory milestones make it improbable before year-end.