With 56 orbital launches completed by mid-May via the reliable Falcon 9 family—achieving a near-perfect success rate through high-reuse boosters averaging over 20 flights each—traders price a sustained cadence of 12-15 missions per month, driven by Starlink constellation expansions and dense national security manifests from NRO and USSF. The tight race between 140-159 (36.5%) and 160-179 (29%) implied probabilities reflects uncertainty in second-half acceleration: optimism hinges on multi-pad operations at SLC-40, LC-39A, and Vandenberg plus potential Starship orbital contributions (currently minimal at 3-4 flights), while downside risks include FAA licensing delays, payload integration snags, or rare anomalies. Upcoming FAA manifests and weekly static fires will sharpen consensus on this skin-in-the-game forecast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
2026年SpaceX发射了多少次？
140-159 36.5%
160-179 30%
180-199 14.0%
200次或更多 5%
$301,892 交易量
$301,892 交易量
少于100
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
37%
160-179
30%
180-199
14%
200次或更多
5%
140-159 36.5%
160-179 30%
180-199 14.0%
200次或更多 5%
$301,892 交易量
$301,892 交易量
少于100
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
37%
160-179
30%
180-199
14%
200次或更多
5%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
市场开放时间： Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 56 orbital launches completed by mid-May via the reliable Falcon 9 family—achieving a near-perfect success rate through high-reuse boosters averaging over 20 flights each—traders price a sustained cadence of 12-15 missions per month, driven by Starlink constellation expansions and dense national security manifests from NRO and USSF. The tight race between 140-159 (36.5%) and 160-179 (29%) implied probabilities reflects uncertainty in second-half acceleration: optimism hinges on multi-pad operations at SLC-40, LC-39A, and Vandenberg plus potential Starship orbital contributions (currently minimal at 3-4 flights), while downside risks include FAA licensing delays, payload integration snags, or rare anomalies. Upcoming FAA manifests and weekly static fires will sharpen consensus on this skin-in-the-game forecast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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