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icon for 2026年SpaceX发射了多少次?

2026年SpaceX发射了多少次?

icon for 2026年SpaceX发射了多少次?

2026年SpaceX发射了多少次?

140-159 51.9%

160-179 38%

120-139 7.1%

180-199 5.8%

Polymarket

$325,482 交易量

140-159 51.9%

160-179 38%

120-139 7.1%

180-199 5.8%

Polymarket

$325,482 交易量

少于100

$5,144 交易量

1%

100-119

$3,271 交易量

2%

120-139

$4,375 交易量

7%

140-159

$49,221 交易量

52%

160-179

$96,988 交易量

38%

180-199

$60,430 交易量

6%

200次或更多

$106,053 交易量

4%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX's market-implied odds favoring 140-159 total launches in 2026 (51.9%) stem primarily from sustained Falcon 9 cadence driven by Starlink constellation expansion and proven booster reusability exceeding 30 missions per vehicle. As of mid-August 2026, the company maintains an average launch interval near 2.5 days across Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, with Gwynne Shotwell's public projection of roughly 140-145 Falcon 9 missions anchoring trader consensus. Secondary support for the 160-179 band (36.5%) reflects upside from potential Starship operational flights if V3 testing advances without major delays, though model uncertainties in regulatory approvals and range capacity limit higher bins. Historical analogs from 2024-2025 records of 134+ annual flights provide baseline context for current positioning.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
交易量
$325,482
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX's market-implied odds favoring 140-159 total launches in 2026 (51.9%) stem primarily from sustained Falcon 9 cadence driven by Starlink constellation expansion and proven booster reusability exceeding 30 missions per vehicle. As of mid-August 2026, the company maintains an average launch interval near 2.5 days across Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, with Gwynne Shotwell's public projection of roughly 140-145 Falcon 9 missions anchoring trader consensus. Secondary support for the 160-179 band (36.5%) reflects upside from potential Starship operational flights if V3 testing advances without major delays, though model uncertainties in regulatory approvals and range capacity limit higher bins. Historical analogs from 2024-2025 records of 134+ annual flights provide baseline context for current positioning.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
交易量
$325,482
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年SpaceX发射了多少次?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"140-159",概率为 52%,其次是"160-179",概率为 38%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 52¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 52%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"2026年SpaceX发射了多少次?"已产生 $325.5K 的总交易量(自Jan 16, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年SpaceX发射了多少次?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年SpaceX发射了多少次?"的当前领先者是"140-159",概率为 52%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 52%。紧随其后的结果是"160-179",概率为 38%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年SpaceX发射了多少次?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。