Trader consensus favors "No" at 69% implied probability for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog showing no events reaching this threshold through mid-May, with the largest at approximately 0.4 kt over Ohio on March 17. Despite a notable 2026 fireball surge—Q1 detections hitting record highs 3-4 standard deviations above norms per American Meteor Society analysis—recorded energies for larger bolides remain well below 5 kt. The Sentry impact monitoring system reports zero tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) posing risks for the year, aligning with historical frequencies of roughly 1-5 detectable 5 kt+ events per decade. Upcoming CNEOS data releases and NEO surveys through year-end could influence odds amid inherent detection uncertainties for untracked paths.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$300,045 交易量
$300,045 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$300,045 交易量
$300,045 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 69% implied probability for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog showing no events reaching this threshold through mid-May, with the largest at approximately 0.4 kt over Ohio on March 17. Despite a notable 2026 fireball surge—Q1 detections hitting record highs 3-4 standard deviations above norms per American Meteor Society analysis—recorded energies for larger bolides remain well below 5 kt. The Sentry impact monitoring system reports zero tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) posing risks for the year, aligning with historical frequencies of roughly 1-5 detectable 5 kt+ events per decade. Upcoming CNEOS data releases and NEO surveys through year-end could influence odds amid inherent detection uncertainties for untracked paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$300,045结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 69% implied probability for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog showing no events reaching this threshold through mid-May, with the largest at approximately 0.4 kt over Ohio on March 17. Despite a notable 2026 fireball surge—Q1 detections hitting record highs 3-4 standard deviations above norms per American Meteor Society analysis—recorded energies for larger bolides remain well below 5 kt. The Sentry impact monitoring system reports zero tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) posing risks for the year, aligning with historical frequencies of roughly 1-5 detectable 5 kt+ events per decade. Upcoming CNEOS data releases and NEO surveys through year-end could influence odds amid inherent detection uncertainties for untracked paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$300,045结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 69% implied probability for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball catalog showing no events reaching this threshold through mid-May, with the largest at approximately 0.4 kt over Ohio on March 17. Despite a notable 2026 fireball surge—Q1 detections hitting record highs 3-4 standard deviations above norms per American Meteor Society analysis—recorded energies for larger bolides remain well below 5 kt. The Sentry impact monitoring system reports zero tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) posing risks for the year, aligning with historical frequencies of roughly 1-5 detectable 5 kt+ events per decade. Upcoming CNEOS data releases and NEO surveys through year-end could influence odds amid inherent detection uncertainties for untracked paths.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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