**No at 71% reflects the low historical frequency of 5kt-scale impacts.** Such events occur roughly once every few years on average, based on fireball and infrasound records, yielding roughly 30-40% odds for any calendar year. With August 2026 already passed and no confirmed strike detected despite global monitoring networks, the remaining probability window is limited. NASA and ESA tracking shows no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 5kt or greater energy; all recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2, were safe flybys. Elevated fireball counts in early 2026 remain within statistical norms and involved far smaller objects. Traders price the market this way because comprehensive surveillance makes undetected events unlikely, and no new data has shifted the baseline rate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
29% 概率
$312,008 交易量
$312,008 交易量
2026-12-31
是
29% 概率
$312,008 交易量
$312,008 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 71% reflects the low historical frequency of 5kt-scale impacts.** Such events occur roughly once every few years on average, based on fireball and infrasound records, yielding roughly 30-40% odds for any calendar year. With August 2026 already passed and no confirmed strike detected despite global monitoring networks, the remaining probability window is limited.
NASA and ESA tracking shows no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 5kt or greater energy; all recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2, were safe flybys. Elevated fireball counts in early 2026 remain within statistical norms and involved far smaller objects. Traders price the market this way because comprehensive surveillance makes undetected events unlikely, and no new data has shifted the baseline rate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$312,008结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 71% reflects the low historical frequency of 5kt-scale impacts.** Such events occur roughly once every few years on average, based on fireball and infrasound records, yielding roughly 30-40% odds for any calendar year. With August 2026 already passed and no confirmed strike detected despite global monitoring networks, the remaining probability window is limited.
NASA and ESA tracking shows no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 5kt or greater energy; all recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2, were safe flybys. Elevated fireball counts in early 2026 remain within statistical norms and involved far smaller objects. Traders price the market this way because comprehensive surveillance makes undetected events unlikely, and no new data has shifted the baseline rate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$312,008结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 71% reflects the low historical frequency of 5kt-scale impacts.** Such events occur roughly once every few years on average, based on fireball and infrasound records, yielding roughly 30-40% odds for any calendar year. With August 2026 already passed and no confirmed strike detected despite global monitoring networks, the remaining probability window is limited. NASA and ESA tracking shows no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 5kt or greater energy; all recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2, were safe flybys. Elevated fireball counts in early 2026 remain within statistical norms and involved far smaller objects. Traders price the market this way because comprehensive surveillance makes undetected events unlikely, and no new data has shifted the baseline rate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题