Strong El Niño conditions, expected to intensify through the peak months, are suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation via increased vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air, according to NOAA’s August 2026 update. The basin has produced only two named storms to date with zero hurricanes, well behind climatology, while official forecasts call for just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the entire season—well below the 1991–2020 average of three. Historical analogs from strong El Niño years show sharply reduced major-hurricane landfall odds along the U.S. coast. With the season’s peak window now underway and no signs of a late surge, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a Category 5 (157+ mph sustained winds) reaching the continental United States before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
14% 概率
$139,736 交易量
$139,736 交易量
2026-12-31
是
14% 概率
$139,736 交易量
$139,736 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, expected to intensify through the peak months, are suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation via increased vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air, according to NOAA’s August 2026 update. The basin has produced only two named storms to date with zero hurricanes, well behind climatology, while official forecasts call for just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the entire season—well below the 1991–2020 average of three. Historical analogs from strong El Niño years show sharply reduced major-hurricane landfall odds along the U.S. coast. With the season’s peak window now underway and no signs of a late surge, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a Category 5 (157+ mph sustained winds) reaching the continental United States before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$139,736结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETFor the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, expected to intensify through the peak months, are suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation via increased vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air, according to NOAA’s August 2026 update. The basin has produced only two named storms to date with zero hurricanes, well behind climatology, while official forecasts call for just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the entire season—well below the 1991–2020 average of three. Historical analogs from strong El Niño years show sharply reduced major-hurricane landfall odds along the U.S. coast. With the season’s peak window now underway and no signs of a late surge, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a Category 5 (157+ mph sustained winds) reaching the continental United States before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$139,736结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETStrong El Niño conditions, expected to intensify through the peak months, are suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation via increased vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air, according to NOAA’s August 2026 update. The basin has produced only two named storms to date with zero hurricanes, well behind climatology, while official forecasts call for just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the entire season—well below the 1991–2020 average of three. Historical analogs from strong El Niño years show sharply reduced major-hurricane landfall odds along the U.S. coast. With the season’s peak window now underway and no signs of a late surge, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a Category 5 (157+ mph sustained winds) reaching the continental United States before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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