Recent Starship V3 test flights in 2026, including Flight 12's successful payload deployment and booster catch advancements, have bolstered trader confidence in achieving full reusability—catching both Super Heavy and the upper stage—by end of 2026. However, persistent heat shield durability issues for rapid ship recovery, limited in-space propellant transfer demonstrations, and the need for multiple high-cadence reuses keep the market near even odds at 55% Yes. SpaceX's focus on avionics upgrades and tower-catch operations positions the program for potential milestones this year, though regulatory approvals and iterative fixes could shift timelines.