Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University and other modeling centers project a somewhat below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing conditions that favor reduced major hurricane development and lower probabilities of intense landfalls along the U.S. coastline. With only about a 32 percent chance estimated for at least one Category 3 or stronger storm making landfall—well below the long-term average of 43 percent—the odds favor no Category 4 system reaching the required wind speeds of 130–156 mph at U.S. arrival before 2027. Upcoming National Hurricane Center and NOAA outlooks on May 21 will provide updated model consensus and early-season guidance, though steering patterns and rapid intensification potential remain key variables that could shift outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$327,420 交易量
$327,420 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$327,420 交易量
$327,420 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University and other modeling centers project a somewhat below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing conditions that favor reduced major hurricane development and lower probabilities of intense landfalls along the U.S. coastline. With only about a 32 percent chance estimated for at least one Category 3 or stronger storm making landfall—well below the long-term average of 43 percent—the odds favor no Category 4 system reaching the required wind speeds of 130–156 mph at U.S. arrival before 2027. Upcoming National Hurricane Center and NOAA outlooks on May 21 will provide updated model consensus and early-season guidance, though steering patterns and rapid intensification potential remain key variables that could shift outcomes.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$327,420结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University and other modeling centers project a somewhat below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing conditions that favor reduced major hurricane development and lower probabilities of intense landfalls along the U.S. coastline. With only about a 32 percent chance estimated for at least one Category 3 or stronger storm making landfall—well below the long-term average of 43 percent—the odds favor no Category 4 system reaching the required wind speeds of 130–156 mph at U.S. arrival before 2027. Upcoming National Hurricane Center and NOAA outlooks on May 21 will provide updated model consensus and early-season guidance, though steering patterns and rapid intensification potential remain key variables that could shift outcomes.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$327,420结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University and other modeling centers project a somewhat below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing conditions that favor reduced major hurricane development and lower probabilities of intense landfalls along the U.S. coastline. With only about a 32 percent chance estimated for at least one Category 3 or stronger storm making landfall—well below the long-term average of 43 percent—the odds favor no Category 4 system reaching the required wind speeds of 130–156 mph at U.S. arrival before 2027. Upcoming National Hurricane Center and NOAA outlooks on May 21 will provide updated model consensus and early-season guidance, though steering patterns and rapid intensification potential remain key variables that could shift outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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