The record-quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed by mid-September and only five weak tropical storms recorded, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability of no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. Strengthening El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear that disrupts organization and intensification, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major (Category 3+) systems for the June–November period. Historical analogs and steering patterns further reduce the odds of a late-season storm reaching Category 4 intensity (130+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and tracking into the continental U.S. While the season runs through November 30 and late development remains possible, current National Hurricane Center monitoring and model consensus indicate limited opportunity for the rapid strengthening or favorable steering needed to challenge this consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$343,304 交易量
$343,304 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 概率
$343,304 交易量
$343,304 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The record-quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed by mid-September and only five weak tropical storms recorded, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability of no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. Strengthening El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear that disrupts organization and intensification, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major (Category 3+) systems for the June–November period. Historical analogs and steering patterns further reduce the odds of a late-season storm reaching Category 4 intensity (130+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and tracking into the continental U.S. While the season runs through November 30 and late development remains possible, current National Hurricane Center monitoring and model consensus indicate limited opportunity for the rapid strengthening or favorable steering needed to challenge this consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$343,304结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETFor the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The record-quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed by mid-September and only five weak tropical storms recorded, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability of no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. Strengthening El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear that disrupts organization and intensification, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major (Category 3+) systems for the June–November period. Historical analogs and steering patterns further reduce the odds of a late-season storm reaching Category 4 intensity (130+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and tracking into the continental U.S. While the season runs through November 30 and late development remains possible, current National Hurricane Center monitoring and model consensus indicate limited opportunity for the rapid strengthening or favorable steering needed to challenge this consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$343,304结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETThe record-quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed by mid-September and only five weak tropical storms recorded, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability of no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. Strengthening El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear that disrupts organization and intensification, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major (Category 3+) systems for the June–November period. Historical analogs and steering patterns further reduce the odds of a late-season storm reaching Category 4 intensity (130+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and tracking into the continental U.S. While the season runs through November 30 and late development remains possible, current National Hurricane Center monitoring and model consensus indicate limited opportunity for the rapid strengthening or favorable steering needed to challenge this consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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