Recent low winter maximum and early summer melt have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with trader consensus on the 4.4–4.8 million range. Record-low March extent of about 14.3 million square kilometers left thinner first-year ice more vulnerable to rapid summer loss, while June–July observations showed extents tracking 5th-lowest on record and 14 percent below the 1991–2020 median. Model projections from May placed the annual minimum near 4.49 million square kilometers, though substantial uncertainty persists from variable August–September weather patterns, including atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake that can accelerate or slow melt. Official NSIDC and JAXA tracking through mid-August will refine resolution thresholds around the 4.2–4.8 million bins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
440万-460万平方公里 37.8%
460万-480万平方公里 28.2%
420万-440万平方公里 14.4%
少于400万平方公里 13%
$67,193 交易量
$67,193 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
13%
400-420万平方公里
13%
420万-440万平方公里
14%
440万-460万平方公里
38%
460万-480万平方公里
28%
480万-500万平方公里
2%
500万平方公里以上
6%
440万-460万平方公里 37.8%
460万-480万平方公里 28.2%
420万-440万平方公里 14.4%
少于400万平方公里 13%
$67,193 交易量
$67,193 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
$30,436 交易量
13%
400-420万平方公里
$6,551 交易量
13%
420万-440万平方公里
$2,920 交易量
14%
440万-460万平方公里
$3,128 交易量
38%
460万-480万平方公里
$6,805 交易量
28%
480万-500万平方公里
$2,898 交易量
2%
500万平方公里以上
$14,455 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum and early summer melt have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with trader consensus on the 4.4–4.8 million range. Record-low March extent of about 14.3 million square kilometers left thinner first-year ice more vulnerable to rapid summer loss, while June–July observations showed extents tracking 5th-lowest on record and 14 percent below the 1991–2020 median. Model projections from May placed the annual minimum near 4.49 million square kilometers, though substantial uncertainty persists from variable August–September weather patterns, including atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake that can accelerate or slow melt. Official NSIDC and JAXA tracking through mid-August will refine resolution thresholds around the 4.2–4.8 million bins.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$67,193结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum and early summer melt have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with trader consensus on the 4.4–4.8 million range. Record-low March extent of about 14.3 million square kilometers left thinner first-year ice more vulnerable to rapid summer loss, while June–July observations showed extents tracking 5th-lowest on record and 14 percent below the 1991–2020 median. Model projections from May placed the annual minimum near 4.49 million square kilometers, though substantial uncertainty persists from variable August–September weather patterns, including atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake that can accelerate or slow melt. Official NSIDC and JAXA tracking through mid-August will refine resolution thresholds around the 4.2–4.8 million bins.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$67,193结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum and early summer melt have positioned 2026 Arctic sea ice for a September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with trader consensus on the 4.4–4.8 million range. Record-low March extent of about 14.3 million square kilometers left thinner first-year ice more vulnerable to rapid summer loss, while June–July observations showed extents tracking 5th-lowest on record and 14 percent below the 1991–2020 median. Model projections from May placed the annual minimum near 4.49 million square kilometers, though substantial uncertainty persists from variable August–September weather patterns, including atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake that can accelerate or slow melt. Official NSIDC and JAXA tracking through mid-August will refine resolution thresholds around the 4.2–4.8 million bins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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