Recent record-low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent, around 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, has left a thinner starting ice pack vulnerable to summer melt driven by atmospheric warming and ocean heat. As of early August, extent stood near 7 million square kilometers, among the lower values for the date, consistent with long-term trends of roughly 12% per decade decline in September minima. Model projections from spring pointed toward a mid-September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with trader emphasis on the 4.4–4.8 million range. Variability in summer weather patterns, including wind-driven ice transport and cloud cover, remains the key uncertainty that could shift outcomes toward or below 4.2 million if melt accelerates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
440万-460万平方公里 37.7%
460万-480万平方公里 28.0%
420万-440万平方公里 15.7%
少于400万平方公里 13%
$67,716 交易量
$67,716 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
13%
400-420万平方公里
13%
420万-440万平方公里
16%
440万-460万平方公里
38%
460万-480万平方公里
28%
480万-500万平方公里
6%
500万平方公里以上
5%
440万-460万平方公里 37.7%
460万-480万平方公里 28.0%
420万-440万平方公里 15.7%
少于400万平方公里 13%
$67,716 交易量
$67,716 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
$30,436 交易量
13%
400-420万平方公里
$6,551 交易量
13%
420万-440万平方公里
$2,920 交易量
16%
440万-460万平方公里
$3,128 交易量
38%
460万-480万平方公里
$6,805 交易量
28%
480万-500万平方公里
$3,402 交易量
6%
500万平方公里以上
$14,474 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent record-low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent, around 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, has left a thinner starting ice pack vulnerable to summer melt driven by atmospheric warming and ocean heat. As of early August, extent stood near 7 million square kilometers, among the lower values for the date, consistent with long-term trends of roughly 12% per decade decline in September minima. Model projections from spring pointed toward a mid-September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with trader emphasis on the 4.4–4.8 million range. Variability in summer weather patterns, including wind-driven ice transport and cloud cover, remains the key uncertainty that could shift outcomes toward or below 4.2 million if melt accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$67,716结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent record-low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent, around 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, has left a thinner starting ice pack vulnerable to summer melt driven by atmospheric warming and ocean heat. As of early August, extent stood near 7 million square kilometers, among the lower values for the date, consistent with long-term trends of roughly 12% per decade decline in September minima. Model projections from spring pointed toward a mid-September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with trader emphasis on the 4.4–4.8 million range. Variability in summer weather patterns, including wind-driven ice transport and cloud cover, remains the key uncertainty that could shift outcomes toward or below 4.2 million if melt accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$67,716结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent record-low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent, around 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, has left a thinner starting ice pack vulnerable to summer melt driven by atmospheric warming and ocean heat. As of early August, extent stood near 7 million square kilometers, among the lower values for the date, consistent with long-term trends of roughly 12% per decade decline in September minima. Model projections from spring pointed toward a mid-September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with trader emphasis on the 4.4–4.8 million range. Variability in summer weather patterns, including wind-driven ice transport and cloud cover, remains the key uncertainty that could shift outcomes toward or below 4.2 million if melt accelerates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题