NSIDC observations confirm the 2026 Arctic winter sea ice maximum tied for the satellite-era record low at 14.29 million square kilometers in March, with extents hitting a new record low for May 8 and ranking second-lowest for mid-April, alongside below-average April volume near 18,500 cubic kilometers. These anomalies—driven by thin ice cover, early melt onset, and persistent warm air temperatures—have positioned trader consensus at 58% implied probability for a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers, potentially shattering the 2012 record of 3.39 million. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network spring outlooks and dynamical model runs will refine probabilities, though seasonal forecasts carry high uncertainty from variable weather patterns and ocean heat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
少于400万平方公里 57%
400-420万平方公里 12.9%
420万-440万平方公里 9.1%
440万-460万平方公里 8.6%
$48,245 交易量
$48,245 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
57%
400-420万平方公里
13%
420万-440万平方公里
9%
440万-460万平方公里
9%
460万-480万平方公里
5%
480万-500万平方公里
2%
500万平方公里以上
4%
少于400万平方公里 57%
400-420万平方公里 12.9%
420万-440万平方公里 9.1%
440万-460万平方公里 8.6%
$48,245 交易量
$48,245 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
$25,052 交易量
57%
400-420万平方公里
$3,335 交易量
13%
420万-440万平方公里
$1,254 交易量
9%
440万-460万平方公里
$1,335 交易量
9%
460万-480万平方公里
$2,874 交易量
5%
480万-500万平方公里
$1,199 交易量
2%
500万平方公里以上
$13,195 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.NSIDC observations confirm the 2026 Arctic winter sea ice maximum tied for the satellite-era record low at 14.29 million square kilometers in March, with extents hitting a new record low for May 8 and ranking second-lowest for mid-April, alongside below-average April volume near 18,500 cubic kilometers. These anomalies—driven by thin ice cover, early melt onset, and persistent warm air temperatures—have positioned trader consensus at 58% implied probability for a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers, potentially shattering the 2012 record of 3.39 million. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network spring outlooks and dynamical model runs will refine probabilities, though seasonal forecasts carry high uncertainty from variable weather patterns and ocean heat.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$48,245结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.NSIDC observations confirm the 2026 Arctic winter sea ice maximum tied for the satellite-era record low at 14.29 million square kilometers in March, with extents hitting a new record low for May 8 and ranking second-lowest for mid-April, alongside below-average April volume near 18,500 cubic kilometers. These anomalies—driven by thin ice cover, early melt onset, and persistent warm air temperatures—have positioned trader consensus at 58% implied probability for a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers, potentially shattering the 2012 record of 3.39 million. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network spring outlooks and dynamical model runs will refine probabilities, though seasonal forecasts carry high uncertainty from variable weather patterns and ocean heat.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$48,245结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NSIDC observations confirm the 2026 Arctic winter sea ice maximum tied for the satellite-era record low at 14.29 million square kilometers in March, with extents hitting a new record low for May 8 and ranking second-lowest for mid-April, alongside below-average April volume near 18,500 cubic kilometers. These anomalies—driven by thin ice cover, early melt onset, and persistent warm air temperatures—have positioned trader consensus at 58% implied probability for a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers, potentially shattering the 2012 record of 3.39 million. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network spring outlooks and dynamical model runs will refine probabilities, though seasonal forecasts carry high uncertainty from variable weather patterns and ocean heat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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