Recent forecast guidance from European models and the Polish Institute of Meteorology indicates a shift to cooler northwesterly flow over Warsaw on August 17, accompanied by increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating and keep maximum temperatures clustered near 22–24°C. This setup explains the market’s tightly bunched probabilities, with 23°C and 24°C leading as traders weigh minor differences in insolation, boundary-layer moisture, and shower timing. Ensemble spread reflects typical short-range uncertainty in frontal passage and local mixing, while historical August maxima near 23–26°C provide context for the modest cooling relative to earlier heat. Updated afternoon observations and final model runs will refine the precise peak before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于华沙8月17日的最高温度？
华沙8月17日的最高温度？
23°C 32%
24°C 27%
22°C 18%
25°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
20°C or below
4%
21°C
6%
22°C
18%
23°C
32%
24°C
27%
25°C
12%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 32%
24°C 27%
22°C 18%
25°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
20°C or below
$1,195 交易量
4%
21°C
$345 交易量
6%
22°C
$1,452 交易量
18%
23°C
$433 交易量
32%
24°C
$798 交易量
27%
25°C
$730 交易量
12%
26°C
$83 交易量
1%
27°C
$229 交易量
1%
28°C
$677 交易量
<1%
29°C
$86 交易量
<1%
30°C or higher
$206 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from European models and the Polish Institute of Meteorology indicates a shift to cooler northwesterly flow over Warsaw on August 17, accompanied by increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating and keep maximum temperatures clustered near 22–24°C. This setup explains the market’s tightly bunched probabilities, with 23°C and 24°C leading as traders weigh minor differences in insolation, boundary-layer moisture, and shower timing. Ensemble spread reflects typical short-range uncertainty in frontal passage and local mixing, while historical August maxima near 23–26°C provide context for the modest cooling relative to earlier heat. Updated afternoon observations and final model runs will refine the precise peak before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
交易量
$6,218结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from European models and the Polish Institute of Meteorology indicates a shift to cooler northwesterly flow over Warsaw on August 17, accompanied by increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating and keep maximum temperatures clustered near 22–24°C. This setup explains the market’s tightly bunched probabilities, with 23°C and 24°C leading as traders weigh minor differences in insolation, boundary-layer moisture, and shower timing. Ensemble spread reflects typical short-range uncertainty in frontal passage and local mixing, while historical August maxima near 23–26°C provide context for the modest cooling relative to earlier heat. Updated afternoon observations and final model runs will refine the precise peak before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,218结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETRecent forecast guidance from European models and the Polish Institute of Meteorology indicates a shift to cooler northwesterly flow over Warsaw on August 17, accompanied by increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating and keep maximum temperatures clustered near 22–24°C. This setup explains the market’s tightly bunched probabilities, with 23°C and 24°C leading as traders weigh minor differences in insolation, boundary-layer moisture, and shower timing. Ensemble spread reflects typical short-range uncertainty in frontal passage and local mixing, while historical August maxima near 23–26°C provide context for the modest cooling relative to earlier heat. Updated afternoon observations and final model runs will refine the precise peak before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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