Recent official forecasts from the UK Met Office, BBC, and European models indicate Warsaw highs near 21–23 °C on August 18 under variable cloud cover and a chance of light showers or early rain that could limit afternoon heating. These conditions create genuine uncertainty in the precise daily maximum, as modest differences in timing of cloud breaks or shower intensity can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. Short-range ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around this range, with limited spread compared to longer-lead outlooks, while climatological August averages (roughly 23 °C) provide context for the modest suppression expected. Traders therefore assign balanced implied probabilities across the 17–21 °C bins, reflecting the narrow but real window for resolution criteria based on official Warsaw station observations. Updated model runs and next-day guidance will further refine the outcome.