**Southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover/rainfall are the dominant near-term drivers keeping the highest temperature in Manila on August 18 centered on 28–29 °C in trader pricing.** PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila lists a 26–31 °C range with 60 % rain probability, consistent with the active monsoon trough that has produced frequent showers and thunderstorms over western Luzon in mid-August 2026. Persistent cloudiness and precipitation reduce incoming solar radiation and evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima below the long-term August average of ~31 °C. Recent model consensus and observed trends show slightly lower highs on days with heavier monsoon rains, supporting the market’s heavier weighting toward 28 °C (36 %) and 29 °C (26 %) while assigning only 19 % to 30 °C. Upcoming PAGASA daily updates and any shifts in monsoon intensity or steering flow over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could move implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月18日马尼拉的最高温度？
8月18日马尼拉的最高温度？
28°C 38%
29°C 24%
27°C 20%
30°C 19%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
22°C或以下
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
10%
27°C
20%
28°C
38%
29°C
24%
30°C
19%
31°C
10%
32°C或更高
6%
28°C 38%
29°C 24%
27°C 20%
30°C 19%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
22°C或以下
$0 交易量
1%
23°C
$0 交易量
1%
24°C
$0 交易量
1%
25°C
$32 交易量
6%
26°C
$0 交易量
10%
27°C
$0 交易量
20%
28°C
$0 交易量
38%
29°C
$0 交易量
24%
30°C
$0 交易量
19%
31°C
$0 交易量
10%
32°C或更高
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover/rainfall are the dominant near-term drivers keeping the highest temperature in Manila on August 18 centered on 28–29 °C in trader pricing.** PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila lists a 26–31 °C range with 60 % rain probability, consistent with the active monsoon trough that has produced frequent showers and thunderstorms over western Luzon in mid-August 2026. Persistent cloudiness and precipitation reduce incoming solar radiation and evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima below the long-term August average of ~31 °C.
Recent model consensus and observed trends show slightly lower highs on days with heavier monsoon rains, supporting the market’s heavier weighting toward 28 °C (36 %) and 29 °C (26 %) while assigning only 19 % to 30 °C. Upcoming PAGASA daily updates and any shifts in monsoon intensity or steering flow over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could move implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$32结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover/rainfall are the dominant near-term drivers keeping the highest temperature in Manila on August 18 centered on 28–29 °C in trader pricing.** PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila lists a 26–31 °C range with 60 % rain probability, consistent with the active monsoon trough that has produced frequent showers and thunderstorms over western Luzon in mid-August 2026. Persistent cloudiness and precipitation reduce incoming solar radiation and evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima below the long-term August average of ~31 °C.
Recent model consensus and observed trends show slightly lower highs on days with heavier monsoon rains, supporting the market’s heavier weighting toward 28 °C (36 %) and 29 °C (26 %) while assigning only 19 % to 30 °C. Upcoming PAGASA daily updates and any shifts in monsoon intensity or steering flow over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could move implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$32结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET**Southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover/rainfall are the dominant near-term drivers keeping the highest temperature in Manila on August 18 centered on 28–29 °C in trader pricing.** PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila lists a 26–31 °C range with 60 % rain probability, consistent with the active monsoon trough that has produced frequent showers and thunderstorms over western Luzon in mid-August 2026. Persistent cloudiness and precipitation reduce incoming solar radiation and evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima below the long-term August average of ~31 °C. Recent model consensus and observed trends show slightly lower highs on days with heavier monsoon rains, supporting the market’s heavier weighting toward 28 °C (36 %) and 29 °C (26 %) while assigning only 19 % to 30 °C. Upcoming PAGASA daily updates and any shifts in monsoon intensity or steering flow over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could move implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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