Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble forecasts for mid-August 2026 indicate typical late-summer conditions over the Kanto region, with a strong Pacific High promoting subsidence and warm-air advection that supports daily highs near 30–32 °C. Trader consensus clusters around 31 °C because this aligns with the long-term August normal of approximately 31.4 °C while accounting for urban heat-island effects and high humidity that can amplify or suppress peak readings depending on cloud cover and wind. Lower outcomes gain probability from possible increased marine-layer moisture or transient troughs, whereas 33 °C or higher remains low-probability absent stronger subtropical ridging. Short-range model updates expected within 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月18日东京气温最高？
8月18日东京气温最高？
31°C 35%
30°C 25%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
15%
30°C
25%
31°C
35%
32°C
22%
33°C
6%
34°C
5%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 35%
30°C 25%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
25°C or below
$686 交易量
<1%
26°C
$13 交易量
<1%
27°C
$9 交易量
1%
28°C
$38 交易量
7%
29°C
$52 交易量
15%
30°C
$31 交易量
25%
31°C
$34 交易量
35%
32°C
$12 交易量
22%
33°C
$24 交易量
6%
34°C
$45 交易量
5%
35°C or higher
$35 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble forecasts for mid-August 2026 indicate typical late-summer conditions over the Kanto region, with a strong Pacific High promoting subsidence and warm-air advection that supports daily highs near 30–32 °C. Trader consensus clusters around 31 °C because this aligns with the long-term August normal of approximately 31.4 °C while accounting for urban heat-island effects and high humidity that can amplify or suppress peak readings depending on cloud cover and wind. Lower outcomes gain probability from possible increased marine-layer moisture or transient troughs, whereas 33 °C or higher remains low-probability absent stronger subtropical ridging. Short-range model updates expected within 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$979结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble forecasts for mid-August 2026 indicate typical late-summer conditions over the Kanto region, with a strong Pacific High promoting subsidence and warm-air advection that supports daily highs near 30–32 °C. Trader consensus clusters around 31 °C because this aligns with the long-term August normal of approximately 31.4 °C while accounting for urban heat-island effects and high humidity that can amplify or suppress peak readings depending on cloud cover and wind. Lower outcomes gain probability from possible increased marine-layer moisture or transient troughs, whereas 33 °C or higher remains low-probability absent stronger subtropical ridging. Short-range model updates expected within 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$979结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble forecasts for mid-August 2026 indicate typical late-summer conditions over the Kanto region, with a strong Pacific High promoting subsidence and warm-air advection that supports daily highs near 30–32 °C. Trader consensus clusters around 31 °C because this aligns with the long-term August normal of approximately 31.4 °C while accounting for urban heat-island effects and high humidity that can amplify or suppress peak readings depending on cloud cover and wind. Lower outcomes gain probability from possible increased marine-layer moisture or transient troughs, whereas 33 °C or higher remains low-probability absent stronger subtropical ridging. Short-range model updates expected within 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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