Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a Tokyo high near 30°C on August 17, 2026, under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity and possible afternoon showers or thunderstorms that could moderate peak readings. This aligns with the market’s concentration of implied probability on 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited day-to-day variability. Historical August baselines average 31°C daytime highs in Tokyo, with urban heat effects and moisture from the Pacific often pushing apparent temperatures higher, yet recent model runs suggest steering patterns may keep the actual maximum from exceeding 31°C. Updated JMA briefings and observational data in the final hours before resolution remain the key variables that could shift the narrow probability distribution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月17日东京气温最高？
8月17日东京气温最高？
30°C 44%
29°C 28%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
7%
29°C
28%
30°C
44%
31°C
15%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 44%
29°C 28%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
24°C or below
$1,197 交易量
<1%
25°C
$815 交易量
<1%
26°C
$348 交易量
1%
27°C
$654 交易量
4%
28°C
$1,312 交易量
7%
29°C
$1,367 交易量
28%
30°C
$1,131 交易量
44%
31°C
$440 交易量
15%
32°C
$314 交易量
3%
33°C
$234 交易量
1%
34°C or higher
$408 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a Tokyo high near 30°C on August 17, 2026, under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity and possible afternoon showers or thunderstorms that could moderate peak readings. This aligns with the market’s concentration of implied probability on 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited day-to-day variability. Historical August baselines average 31°C daytime highs in Tokyo, with urban heat effects and moisture from the Pacific often pushing apparent temperatures higher, yet recent model runs suggest steering patterns may keep the actual maximum from exceeding 31°C. Updated JMA briefings and observational data in the final hours before resolution remain the key variables that could shift the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
交易量
$8,223结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a Tokyo high near 30°C on August 17, 2026, under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity and possible afternoon showers or thunderstorms that could moderate peak readings. This aligns with the market’s concentration of implied probability on 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited day-to-day variability. Historical August baselines average 31°C daytime highs in Tokyo, with urban heat effects and moisture from the Pacific often pushing apparent temperatures higher, yet recent model runs suggest steering patterns may keep the actual maximum from exceeding 31°C. Updated JMA briefings and observational data in the final hours before resolution remain the key variables that could shift the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$8,223结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETCurrent meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a Tokyo high near 30°C on August 17, 2026, under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity and possible afternoon showers or thunderstorms that could moderate peak readings. This aligns with the market’s concentration of implied probability on 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited day-to-day variability. Historical August baselines average 31°C daytime highs in Tokyo, with urban heat effects and moisture from the Pacific often pushing apparent temperatures higher, yet recent model runs suggest steering patterns may keep the actual maximum from exceeding 31°C. Updated JMA briefings and observational data in the final hours before resolution remain the key variables that could shift the narrow probability distribution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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