Recent model guidance and climatological norms for mid-August in Wellington strongly support the market's overwhelming consensus around a 10°C daily high, with southerly flows and residual polar air from earlier in the month keeping conditions near seasonal averages. NIWA outlooks indicate near-average temperatures are most probable for the Wellington region this winter, while short-range forecasts from MetService and international ensembles project maxima around 9–11°C under typical wind patterns and cloud cover. This positioning reflects traders' confidence in stable atmospheric conditions rather than any anomalous warming. A shift to stronger northerly advection or an unexpected model consensus revision could push readings to 11–12°C, though current observational trends and ensemble spread make such outcomes low-probability before the 16th.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日惠灵顿的最高温度？
8月16日惠灵顿的最高温度？
10°C 96%
11°C 4%
12°C 1.3%
13°C <1%
最新
$54,646 交易量
最新
$54,646 交易量
2026-08-16
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
96%
11°C
4%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 96%
11°C 4%
12°C 1.3%
13°C <1%
最新
$54,646 交易量
最新
$54,646 交易量
2026-08-16
4°C or below
$763 交易量
<1%
5°C
$907 交易量
<1%
6°C
$1,049 交易量
<1%
7°C
$3,612 交易量
<1%
8°C
$5,657 交易量
<1%
9°C
$26,729 交易量
<1%
10°C
$7,288 交易量
96%
11°C
$4,508 交易量
4%
12°C
$2,546 交易量
1%
13°C
$1,300 交易量
<1%
14°C or higher
$287 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and climatological norms for mid-August in Wellington strongly support the market's overwhelming consensus around a 10°C daily high, with southerly flows and residual polar air from earlier in the month keeping conditions near seasonal averages. NIWA outlooks indicate near-average temperatures are most probable for the Wellington region this winter, while short-range forecasts from MetService and international ensembles project maxima around 9–11°C under typical wind patterns and cloud cover. This positioning reflects traders' confidence in stable atmospheric conditions rather than any anomalous warming. A shift to stronger northerly advection or an unexpected model consensus revision could push readings to 11–12°C, though current observational trends and ensemble spread make such outcomes low-probability before the 16th.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$54,646结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and climatological norms for mid-August in Wellington strongly support the market's overwhelming consensus around a 10°C daily high, with southerly flows and residual polar air from earlier in the month keeping conditions near seasonal averages. NIWA outlooks indicate near-average temperatures are most probable for the Wellington region this winter, while short-range forecasts from MetService and international ensembles project maxima around 9–11°C under typical wind patterns and cloud cover. This positioning reflects traders' confidence in stable atmospheric conditions rather than any anomalous warming. A shift to stronger northerly advection or an unexpected model consensus revision could push readings to 11–12°C, though current observational trends and ensemble spread make such outcomes low-probability before the 16th.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$54,646结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent model guidance and climatological norms for mid-August in Wellington strongly support the market's overwhelming consensus around a 10°C daily high, with southerly flows and residual polar air from earlier in the month keeping conditions near seasonal averages. NIWA outlooks indicate near-average temperatures are most probable for the Wellington region this winter, while short-range forecasts from MetService and international ensembles project maxima around 9–11°C under typical wind patterns and cloud cover. This positioning reflects traders' confidence in stable atmospheric conditions rather than any anomalous warming. A shift to stronger northerly advection or an unexpected model consensus revision could push readings to 11–12°C, though current observational trends and ensemble spread make such outcomes low-probability before the 16th.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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