The southwest monsoon (Habagat) driving scattered rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila through August 17 is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around a 29°C peak (46.5% implied probability). Official PAGASA outlooks list highs of 29–32°C with 60% rain chances for that date, consistent with recent model runs showing persistent cloud cover limiting daytime heating compared with clearer August climatology. This setup favors 28–30°C outcomes (collectively over 90% probability) while keeping 31°C+ below 8%, as heavy precipitation and elevated humidity historically cap maxima near or below seasonal norms. Updated PAGASA briefings and any overnight model shifts on steering patterns or rainfall intensity remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月17日马尼拉的最高温度？
8月17日马尼拉的最高温度？
29°C 47%
28°C 30%
30°C 17%
31°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
30%
29°C
47%
30°C
17%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C或更高
1%
29°C 47%
28°C 30%
30°C 17%
31°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
23°C或以下
$92 交易量
<1%
24°C
$35 交易量
<1%
25°C
$84 交易量
<1%
26°C
$338 交易量
1%
27°C
$148 交易量
4%
28°C
$205 交易量
30%
29°C
$722 交易量
47%
30°C
$148 交易量
17%
31°C
$226 交易量
6%
32°C
$362 交易量
2%
33°C或更高
$230 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (Habagat) driving scattered rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila through August 17 is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around a 29°C peak (46.5% implied probability). Official PAGASA outlooks list highs of 29–32°C with 60% rain chances for that date, consistent with recent model runs showing persistent cloud cover limiting daytime heating compared with clearer August climatology. This setup favors 28–30°C outcomes (collectively over 90% probability) while keeping 31°C+ below 8%, as heavy precipitation and elevated humidity historically cap maxima near or below seasonal norms. Updated PAGASA briefings and any overnight model shifts on steering patterns or rainfall intensity remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$2,591结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (Habagat) driving scattered rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila through August 17 is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around a 29°C peak (46.5% implied probability). Official PAGASA outlooks list highs of 29–32°C with 60% rain chances for that date, consistent with recent model runs showing persistent cloud cover limiting daytime heating compared with clearer August climatology. This setup favors 28–30°C outcomes (collectively over 90% probability) while keeping 31°C+ below 8%, as heavy precipitation and elevated humidity historically cap maxima near or below seasonal norms. Updated PAGASA briefings and any overnight model shifts on steering patterns or rainfall intensity remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,591结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:09 PM ETThe southwest monsoon (Habagat) driving scattered rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila through August 17 is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around a 29°C peak (46.5% implied probability). Official PAGASA outlooks list highs of 29–32°C with 60% rain chances for that date, consistent with recent model runs showing persistent cloud cover limiting daytime heating compared with clearer August climatology. This setup favors 28–30°C outcomes (collectively over 90% probability) while keeping 31°C+ below 8%, as heavy precipitation and elevated humidity historically cap maxima near or below seasonal norms. Updated PAGASA briefings and any overnight model shifts on steering patterns or rainfall intensity remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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