Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid highs of 34–36°C on August 17, 2026, under clear skies and light winds that favor strong daytime heating. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 37°C outcome (57.5% implied probability) and 38°C (28.0%), as ensemble guidance shows potential for slight upward revisions from current runs amid a stable high-pressure pattern typical of mid-August. Recent observations confirm sustained warmth across central Spain, with limited cloud cover and dry conditions supporting temperatures near or above seasonal normals of 32–34°C. Key resolution hinges on the official maximum reported by AEMET, with any model shifts or unexpected cooling from Atlantic influences able to adjust probabilities before the close of trading.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月17日马德里气温最高？
8月17日马德里气温最高？
37°C 63%
38°C 26%
36°C 9%
35°C 3%
最新
$13,207 交易量
最新
$13,207 交易量
2026-08-17
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
3%
36°C
9%
37°C
63%
38°C
26%
39°C
3%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 63%
38°C 26%
36°C 9%
35°C 3%
最新
$13,207 交易量
最新
$13,207 交易量
2026-08-17
32°C or below
$1,075 交易量
<1%
33°C
$518 交易量
<1%
34°C
$569 交易量
1%
35°C
$730 交易量
3%
36°C
$2,744 交易量
9%
37°C
$3,650 交易量
63%
38°C
$2,504 交易量
26%
39°C
$314 交易量
3%
40°C
$511 交易量
1%
41°C
$230 交易量
<1%
42°C or higher
$363 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid highs of 34–36°C on August 17, 2026, under clear skies and light winds that favor strong daytime heating. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 37°C outcome (57.5% implied probability) and 38°C (28.0%), as ensemble guidance shows potential for slight upward revisions from current runs amid a stable high-pressure pattern typical of mid-August. Recent observations confirm sustained warmth across central Spain, with limited cloud cover and dry conditions supporting temperatures near or above seasonal normals of 32–34°C. Key resolution hinges on the official maximum reported by AEMET, with any model shifts or unexpected cooling from Atlantic influences able to adjust probabilities before the close of trading.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
交易量
$13,207结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid highs of 34–36°C on August 17, 2026, under clear skies and light winds that favor strong daytime heating. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 37°C outcome (57.5% implied probability) and 38°C (28.0%), as ensemble guidance shows potential for slight upward revisions from current runs amid a stable high-pressure pattern typical of mid-August. Recent observations confirm sustained warmth across central Spain, with limited cloud cover and dry conditions supporting temperatures near or above seasonal normals of 32–34°C. Key resolution hinges on the official maximum reported by AEMET, with any model shifts or unexpected cooling from Atlantic influences able to adjust probabilities before the close of trading.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,207结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETForecast models from sources including the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid highs of 34–36°C on August 17, 2026, under clear skies and light winds that favor strong daytime heating. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 37°C outcome (57.5% implied probability) and 38°C (28.0%), as ensemble guidance shows potential for slight upward revisions from current runs amid a stable high-pressure pattern typical of mid-August. Recent observations confirm sustained warmth across central Spain, with limited cloud cover and dry conditions supporting temperatures near or above seasonal normals of 32–34°C. Key resolution hinges on the official maximum reported by AEMET, with any model shifts or unexpected cooling from Atlantic influences able to adjust probabilities before the close of trading.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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