NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the strong “No” consensus at 88.5% implied probability. Continuous radar and optical surveys, plus the Scout early-detection pipeline, have tracked all recent discoveries—including 2026 HJ1 and similar objects—confirming safe lunar-distance or greater flybys. Historical impact rates for 10-kiloton-class events remain multi-year to decadal, with no statistical uptick or undetected large-body signals in current planetary-defense data. Mid-year passage without incident further reinforces trader sentiment that existing monitoring coverage leaves little room for surprise.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
12% 概率
$178,784 交易量
$178,784 交易量
2026-12-31
是
12% 概率
$178,784 交易量
$178,784 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the strong “No” consensus at 88.5% implied probability. Continuous radar and optical surveys, plus the Scout early-detection pipeline, have tracked all recent discoveries—including 2026 HJ1 and similar objects—confirming safe lunar-distance or greater flybys. Historical impact rates for 10-kiloton-class events remain multi-year to decadal, with no statistical uptick or undetected large-body signals in current planetary-defense data. Mid-year passage without incident further reinforces trader sentiment that existing monitoring coverage leaves little room for surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$178,784结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the strong “No” consensus at 88.5% implied probability. Continuous radar and optical surveys, plus the Scout early-detection pipeline, have tracked all recent discoveries—including 2026 HJ1 and similar objects—confirming safe lunar-distance or greater flybys. Historical impact rates for 10-kiloton-class events remain multi-year to decadal, with no statistical uptick or undetected large-body signals in current planetary-defense data. Mid-year passage without incident further reinforces trader sentiment that existing monitoring coverage leaves little room for surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$178,784结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the strong “No” consensus at 88.5% implied probability. Continuous radar and optical surveys, plus the Scout early-detection pipeline, have tracked all recent discoveries—including 2026 HJ1 and similar objects—confirming safe lunar-distance or greater flybys. Historical impact rates for 10-kiloton-class events remain multi-year to decadal, with no statistical uptick or undetected large-body signals in current planetary-defense data. Mid-year passage without incident further reinforces trader sentiment that existing monitoring coverage leaves little room for surprise.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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