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icon for 在12月31日之前再生一个伊隆宝宝?

在12月31日之前再生一个伊隆宝宝?

icon for 在12月31日之前再生一个伊隆宝宝?

在12月31日之前再生一个伊隆宝宝?

12月 31

12月 31

18% 概率
Polymarket
最新

18% 概率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count. The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability due to the complete absence of credible reports, announcements, or leaks signaling a new pregnancy or birth since the 2025 arrivals of children with Ashley St. Clair and Shivon Zilis. Musk's intense focus on AI development at xAI, Neuralink advances, and Tesla operations leaves little room for public or private family expansions that would resolve by year-end, with typical gestation timelines and confirmation patterns making a fresh conception unlikely to yield a confirmed outcome in the remaining months. Historical private births eventually surface via partners or filings, yet no such signals have emerged amid ongoing platform activity on X. Key catalysts include potential regulatory or earnings events that could indirectly shift attention, though the lack of recent developments sustains the strong consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$653
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count. The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count. The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability due to the complete absence of credible reports, announcements, or leaks signaling a new pregnancy or birth since the 2025 arrivals of children with Ashley St. Clair and Shivon Zilis. Musk's intense focus on AI development at xAI, Neuralink advances, and Tesla operations leaves little room for public or private family expansions that would resolve by year-end, with typical gestation timelines and confirmation patterns making a fresh conception unlikely to yield a confirmed outcome in the remaining months. Historical private births eventually surface via partners or filings, yet no such signals have emerged amid ongoing platform activity on X. Key catalysts include potential regulatory or earnings events that could indirectly shift attention, though the lack of recent developments sustains the strong consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$653
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count. The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"在12月31日之前再生一个伊隆宝宝?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"在12月31日之前会有另一个埃隆的孩子吗?",概率为 18%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 18¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 18%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"在12月31日之前再生一个伊隆宝宝?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Jun 30, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"在12月31日之前再生一个伊隆宝宝?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"在12月31日之前再生一个伊隆宝宝?"的当前领先者是"在12月31日之前会有另一个埃隆的孩子吗?",概率为 18%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 18%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"在12月31日之前再生一个伊隆宝宝?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。