Tesla’s Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas and the September 3 Austin launch event have reinforced trader consensus that “No” remains the high-probability outcome. While Elon Musk reiterated in February a sub-$30,000 target for individual buyers before the end of 2026, recent reporting shows initial deployments focused on employee rides and limited robotaxi service rather than retail sales. The vehicle’s lack of steering wheel or pedals requires regulatory approval for unsupervised operation in broader areas, and credible timelines now point consumer availability to 2027. Production capacity exists, yet early output prioritizes fleet testing amid ongoing Full Self-Driving validation challenges. The imminent Austin event and any clarity on private-order timing represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
18% 概率
$48,441 交易量
$48,441 交易量
2026-12-30
是
18% 概率
$48,441 交易量
$48,441 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas and the September 3 Austin launch event have reinforced trader consensus that “No” remains the high-probability outcome. While Elon Musk reiterated in February a sub-$30,000 target for individual buyers before the end of 2026, recent reporting shows initial deployments focused on employee rides and limited robotaxi service rather than retail sales. The vehicle’s lack of steering wheel or pedals requires regulatory approval for unsupervised operation in broader areas, and credible timelines now point consumer availability to 2027. Production capacity exists, yet early output prioritizes fleet testing amid ongoing Full Self-Driving validation challenges. The imminent Austin event and any clarity on private-order timing represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$48,441结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas and the September 3 Austin launch event have reinforced trader consensus that “No” remains the high-probability outcome. While Elon Musk reiterated in February a sub-$30,000 target for individual buyers before the end of 2026, recent reporting shows initial deployments focused on employee rides and limited robotaxi service rather than retail sales. The vehicle’s lack of steering wheel or pedals requires regulatory approval for unsupervised operation in broader areas, and credible timelines now point consumer availability to 2027. Production capacity exists, yet early output prioritizes fleet testing amid ongoing Full Self-Driving validation challenges. The imminent Austin event and any clarity on private-order timing represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$48,441结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas and the September 3 Austin launch event have reinforced trader consensus that “No” remains the high-probability outcome. While Elon Musk reiterated in February a sub-$30,000 target for individual buyers before the end of 2026, recent reporting shows initial deployments focused on employee rides and limited robotaxi service rather than retail sales. The vehicle’s lack of steering wheel or pedals requires regulatory approval for unsupervised operation in broader areas, and credible timelines now point consumer availability to 2027. Production capacity exists, yet early output prioritizes fleet testing amid ongoing Full Self-Driving validation challenges. The imminent Austin event and any clarity on private-order timing represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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