Claude Opus 5's July 24 release has driven trader consensus toward its high and max effort variants for the September 7 evaluation, as the model delivers step-change gains in deep reasoning, agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching Opus-tier pricing. It has since led or placed near the top of August 2026 leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and agentic benchmarks from sources like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS, outperforming or closely trailing only the pricier Claude Fable 5. The high and max settings leverage its default thinking mode and full effort ladder for peak performance, with no major competing releases disrupting this positioning in the past month. Traders see limited near-term upside for older Opus 4.6 variants or other labs absent fresh announcements before the resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-opus-5-high 68%
claude-opus-5-max 28%
其他 5.9%
claude-opus-4-6-high 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
claude-opus-5-high
68%
claude-opus-5-max
28%
其他
6%
claude-opus-4-6-high
5%
claude-opus-5-high 68%
claude-opus-5-max 28%
其他 5.9%
claude-opus-4-6-high 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
claude-opus-5-high
$20 交易量
68%
claude-opus-5-max
$20 交易量
28%
其他
$10 交易量
6%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$26 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's July 24 release has driven trader consensus toward its high and max effort variants for the September 7 evaluation, as the model delivers step-change gains in deep reasoning, agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching Opus-tier pricing. It has since led or placed near the top of August 2026 leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and agentic benchmarks from sources like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS, outperforming or closely trailing only the pricier Claude Fable 5. The high and max settings leverage its default thinking mode and full effort ladder for peak performance, with no major competing releases disrupting this positioning in the past month. Traders see limited near-term upside for older Opus 4.6 variants or other labs absent fresh announcements before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
交易量
$76结束日期
2026-09-07市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's July 24 release has driven trader consensus toward its high and max effort variants for the September 7 evaluation, as the model delivers step-change gains in deep reasoning, agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching Opus-tier pricing. It has since led or placed near the top of August 2026 leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and agentic benchmarks from sources like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS, outperforming or closely trailing only the pricier Claude Fable 5. The high and max settings leverage its default thinking mode and full effort ladder for peak performance, with no major competing releases disrupting this positioning in the past month. Traders see limited near-term upside for older Opus 4.6 variants or other labs absent fresh announcements before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$76结束日期
2026-09-07市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5's July 24 release has driven trader consensus toward its high and max effort variants for the September 7 evaluation, as the model delivers step-change gains in deep reasoning, agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching Opus-tier pricing. It has since led or placed near the top of August 2026 leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and agentic benchmarks from sources like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS, outperforming or closely trailing only the pricier Claude Fable 5. The high and max settings leverage its default thinking mode and full effort ladder for peak performance, with no major competing releases disrupting this positioning in the past month. Traders see limited near-term upside for older Opus 4.6 variants or other labs absent fresh announcements before the resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题