Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the end-of-September 2026 #1 AI model under Style Control On, reflecting its recent benchmark dominance with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 topping composite quality and coding metrics like SWE-Bench. These models emphasize substantive reasoning over formatting, aligning directly with the resolution criteria that neutralize presentation advantages. Close competition from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 Pro, plus Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in accuracy and reasoning tasks, keeps multiple outcomes near even odds. Key swing factors include any September frontier releases, continued leaderboard shifts on LMSYS Arena, and how well each lab sustains gains in instruction-following and agentic capabilities amid rapid iteration cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 50%
Moonshot 36%
Meta 36%
谷歌 35%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
Anthropic
50%
Moonshot
36%
Meta
36%
谷歌
35%
Mistral
32%
英伟达
32%
微软
32%
OpenAI
32%
阿里巴巴
29%
SpaceXAI
29%
Z.ai
29%
百度
29%
小米
29%
DeepSeek
29%
MiniMax
29%
Thinky
29%
美团
29%
亚马逊
29%
腾讯
29%
字节跳动
29%
StepFun
32%
Anthropic 50%
Moonshot 36%
Meta 36%
谷歌 35%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
Anthropic
$45 交易量
50%
Moonshot
$45 交易量
36%
Meta
$45 交易量
36%
谷歌
$45 交易量
35%
Mistral
$45 交易量
32%
英伟达
$45 交易量
32%
微软
$45 交易量
32%
OpenAI
$45 交易量
32%
阿里巴巴
$45 交易量
29%
SpaceXAI
$45 交易量
29%
Z.ai
$45 交易量
29%
百度
$45 交易量
29%
小米
$45 交易量
29%
DeepSeek
$45 交易量
29%
MiniMax
$45 交易量
29%
Thinky
$45 交易量
29%
美团
$45 交易量
29%
亚马逊
$45 交易量
29%
腾讯
$45 交易量
29%
字节跳动
$45 交易量
29%
StepFun
$45 交易量
32%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the end-of-September 2026 #1 AI model under Style Control On, reflecting its recent benchmark dominance with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 topping composite quality and coding metrics like SWE-Bench. These models emphasize substantive reasoning over formatting, aligning directly with the resolution criteria that neutralize presentation advantages. Close competition from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 Pro, plus Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in accuracy and reasoning tasks, keeps multiple outcomes near even odds. Key swing factors include any September frontier releases, continued leaderboard shifts on LMSYS Arena, and how well each lab sustains gains in instruction-following and agentic capabilities amid rapid iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
交易量
$937结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the end-of-September 2026 #1 AI model under Style Control On, reflecting its recent benchmark dominance with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 topping composite quality and coding metrics like SWE-Bench. These models emphasize substantive reasoning over formatting, aligning directly with the resolution criteria that neutralize presentation advantages. Close competition from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 Pro, plus Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in accuracy and reasoning tasks, keeps multiple outcomes near even odds. Key swing factors include any September frontier releases, continued leaderboard shifts on LMSYS Arena, and how well each lab sustains gains in instruction-following and agentic capabilities amid rapid iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$937结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETAnthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the end-of-September 2026 #1 AI model under Style Control On, reflecting its recent benchmark dominance with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 topping composite quality and coding metrics like SWE-Bench. These models emphasize substantive reasoning over formatting, aligning directly with the resolution criteria that neutralize presentation advantages. Close competition from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 Pro, plus Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in accuracy and reasoning tasks, keeps multiple outcomes near even odds. Key swing factors include any September frontier releases, continued leaderboard shifts on LMSYS Arena, and how well each lab sustains gains in instruction-following and agentic capabilities amid rapid iteration cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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