Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于SpaceXAI 33%
OpenAI 28%
Anthropic 27%
小米 26%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
SpaceXAI
33%
OpenAI
28%
Anthropic
27%
小米
26%
阿里巴巴
25%
谷歌
24%
Z.ai
24%
亚马逊
24%
百度
23%
字节跳动
23%
MiniMax
22%
Moonshot
23%
Meta
23%
英伟达
26%
DeepSeek
23%
美团
23%
腾讯
21%
StepFun
20%
微软
20%
Mistral
16%
SpaceXAI 33%
OpenAI 28%
Anthropic 27%
小米 26%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
SpaceXAI
$40 交易量
33%
OpenAI
$40 交易量
28%
Anthropic
$40 交易量
27%
小米
$40 交易量
26%
阿里巴巴
$40 交易量
25%
谷歌
$40 交易量
24%
Z.ai
$40 交易量
24%
亚马逊
$40 交易量
24%
百度
$40 交易量
23%
字节跳动
$99 交易量
23%
MiniMax
$40 交易量
22%
Moonshot
$40 交易量
23%
Meta
$40 交易量
23%
英伟达
$40 交易量
26%
DeepSeek
$40 交易量
23%
美团
$40 交易量
23%
腾讯
$40 交易量
21%
StepFun
$40 交易量
20%
微软
$40 交易量
20%
Mistral
$143 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
交易量
$962结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$962结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETTraders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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