OpenAI’s September launch of GPT-6 Astra, which quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 score ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, drives the 76.5% market-implied odds for the company. This agentic coding benchmark evaluates multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative frontend tasks such as image-to-webdev workflows, where recent OpenAI gains in efficiency and capability have outpaced rivals. Anthropic holds 23% odds on the strength of its prior Claude Opus and Fable variants, while lower probabilities for Google, Alibaba’s Qwen, Moonshot’s Kimi, and others reflect their competitive but trailing positions on the same crowdsourced Elo-style rankings. With resolution at month-end, any new model drops or benchmark shifts in the next two weeks remain the key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于OpenAI 76.6%
Anthropic 23%
谷歌 <1%
阿里巴巴 <1%
$145,653 交易量
$145,653 交易量
2026-09-30
OpenAI
77%
Anthropic
23%
谷歌
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
小米
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
腾讯
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 76.6%
Anthropic 23%
谷歌 <1%
阿里巴巴 <1%
$145,653 交易量
$145,653 交易量
2026-09-30
OpenAI
$28,171 交易量
77%
Anthropic
$60,204 交易量
23%
谷歌
$5,643 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$8,558 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$20,259 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$4,801 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$6,591 交易量
<1%
Meta
$3,137 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$1,134 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,246 交易量
<1%
小米
$657 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$560 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$571 交易量
<1%
Poolside
$641 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$789 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s September launch of GPT-6 Astra, which quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 score ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, drives the 76.5% market-implied odds for the company. This agentic coding benchmark evaluates multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative frontend tasks such as image-to-webdev workflows, where recent OpenAI gains in efficiency and capability have outpaced rivals. Anthropic holds 23% odds on the strength of its prior Claude Opus and Fable variants, while lower probabilities for Google, Alibaba’s Qwen, Moonshot’s Kimi, and others reflect their competitive but trailing positions on the same crowdsourced Elo-style rankings. With resolution at month-end, any new model drops or benchmark shifts in the next two weeks remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
交易量
$145,653结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s September launch of GPT-6 Astra, which quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 score ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, drives the 76.5% market-implied odds for the company. This agentic coding benchmark evaluates multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative frontend tasks such as image-to-webdev workflows, where recent OpenAI gains in efficiency and capability have outpaced rivals. Anthropic holds 23% odds on the strength of its prior Claude Opus and Fable variants, while lower probabilities for Google, Alibaba’s Qwen, Moonshot’s Kimi, and others reflect their competitive but trailing positions on the same crowdsourced Elo-style rankings. With resolution at month-end, any new model drops or benchmark shifts in the next two weeks remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$145,653结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETOpenAI’s September launch of GPT-6 Astra, which quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 score ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, drives the 76.5% market-implied odds for the company. This agentic coding benchmark evaluates multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative frontend tasks such as image-to-webdev workflows, where recent OpenAI gains in efficiency and capability have outpaced rivals. Anthropic holds 23% odds on the strength of its prior Claude Opus and Fable variants, while lower probabilities for Google, Alibaba’s Qwen, Moonshot’s Kimi, and others reflect their competitive but trailing positions on the same crowdsourced Elo-style rankings. With resolution at month-end, any new model drops or benchmark shifts in the next two weeks remain the key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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