Trader sentiment on the next Claude Opus release reflects high uncertainty around Anthropic’s rapid 2026 cadence, with no single date commanding majority implied probability. The July 24 launch of Claude Opus 5, followed quickly by Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, established a pattern of frequent Opus-tier updates focused on coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench, agentic workflows, and cost-efficient performance near frontier models. Recent rumors of an Opus 5.2 window in mid-to-late September—circulating without official confirmation or model cards—have fragmented odds across September 21–25 while keeping “no release by September 30” near 20 percent. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google releases, combined with Anthropic’s emphasis on safety classifiers and effort controls, sustains trader focus on verifiable API identifiers or announcements as the key resolution trigger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于截至9月30日未发布 22%
9月24日 20%
9月22日 18%
9月25日 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
9月18日
7%
9月19日
1%
9月20日
1%
9月21日
9%
9月22日
18%
9月23日
10%
9月24日
20%
9月25日
12%
9月26日
<1%
9月27日
<1%
9月28日
6%
9月29日
10%
9月30日
8%
截至9月30日未发布
22%
截至9月30日未发布 22%
9月24日 20%
9月22日 18%
9月25日 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
9月18日
$156 交易量
7%
9月19日
$603 交易量
1%
9月20日
$1,090 交易量
1%
9月21日
$134 交易量
9%
9月22日
$579 交易量
18%
9月23日
$803 交易量
10%
9月24日
$1,014 交易量
20%
9月25日
$132 交易量
12%
9月26日
$553 交易量
<1%
9月27日
$553 交易量
<1%
9月28日
$224 交易量
6%
9月29日
$738 交易量
10%
9月30日
$430 交易量
8%
截至9月30日未发布
$1,440 交易量
22%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on the next Claude Opus release reflects high uncertainty around Anthropic’s rapid 2026 cadence, with no single date commanding majority implied probability. The July 24 launch of Claude Opus 5, followed quickly by Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, established a pattern of frequent Opus-tier updates focused on coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench, agentic workflows, and cost-efficient performance near frontier models. Recent rumors of an Opus 5.2 window in mid-to-late September—circulating without official confirmation or model cards—have fragmented odds across September 21–25 while keeping “no release by September 30” near 20 percent. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google releases, combined with Anthropic’s emphasis on safety classifiers and effort controls, sustains trader focus on verifiable API identifiers or announcements as the key resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$9,221结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on the next Claude Opus release reflects high uncertainty around Anthropic’s rapid 2026 cadence, with no single date commanding majority implied probability. The July 24 launch of Claude Opus 5, followed quickly by Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, established a pattern of frequent Opus-tier updates focused on coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench, agentic workflows, and cost-efficient performance near frontier models. Recent rumors of an Opus 5.2 window in mid-to-late September—circulating without official confirmation or model cards—have fragmented odds across September 21–25 while keeping “no release by September 30” near 20 percent. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google releases, combined with Anthropic’s emphasis on safety classifiers and effort controls, sustains trader focus on verifiable API identifiers or announcements as the key resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$9,221结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETTrader sentiment on the next Claude Opus release reflects high uncertainty around Anthropic’s rapid 2026 cadence, with no single date commanding majority implied probability. The July 24 launch of Claude Opus 5, followed quickly by Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, established a pattern of frequent Opus-tier updates focused on coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench, agentic workflows, and cost-efficient performance near frontier models. Recent rumors of an Opus 5.2 window in mid-to-late September—circulating without official confirmation or model cards—have fragmented odds across September 21–25 while keeping “no release by September 30” near 20 percent. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google releases, combined with Anthropic’s emphasis on safety classifiers and effort controls, sustains trader focus on verifiable API identifiers or announcements as the key resolution trigger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题