Meta and Google lead trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of November because recent benchmarks and releases position Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra as the clear frontier leaders, with the next tier defined by enterprise adoption, open-weight performance, and multimodal capabilities. Google benefits from Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and broad integration across Search and Android, while Meta’s Llama 4 and Muse Spark lines drive developer ecosystem momentum through open releases and competitive coding/reasoning scores. Chinese labs trail on independent indices despite strong open models from Alibaba and Zhipu, and low odds on OpenAI or Anthropic reflect trader consensus that those two occupy the top spots. Key swing factors include any late-2026 flagship drops or benchmark shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Meta 39%
谷歌 35%
阿里巴巴 11%
Moonshot 7.1%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Meta
39%
谷歌
35%
阿里巴巴
11%
Moonshot
8%
OpenAI
5%
Z.ai
4%
英伟达
4%
Anthropic
3%
字节跳动
3%
微软
3%
小米
3%
百度
3%
亚马逊
3%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
美团
1%
腾讯
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta 39%
谷歌 35%
阿里巴巴 11%
Moonshot 7.1%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Meta
$1,569 交易量
39%
谷歌
$778 交易量
35%
阿里巴巴
$212 交易量
11%
Moonshot
$81 交易量
8%
OpenAI
$67 交易量
5%
Z.ai
$67 交易量
4%
英伟达
$67 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$127 交易量
3%
字节跳动
$75 交易量
3%
微软
$87 交易量
3%
小米
$88 交易量
3%
百度
$128 交易量
3%
亚马逊
$67 交易量
3%
SpaceXAI
$67 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$61 交易量
1%
Thinky
$71 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$71 交易量
1%
Mistral
$61 交易量
1%
美团
$61 交易量
1%
腾讯
$71 交易量
1%
StepFun
$61 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta and Google lead trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of November because recent benchmarks and releases position Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra as the clear frontier leaders, with the next tier defined by enterprise adoption, open-weight performance, and multimodal capabilities. Google benefits from Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and broad integration across Search and Android, while Meta’s Llama 4 and Muse Spark lines drive developer ecosystem momentum through open releases and competitive coding/reasoning scores. Chinese labs trail on independent indices despite strong open models from Alibaba and Zhipu, and low odds on OpenAI or Anthropic reflect trader consensus that those two occupy the top spots. Key swing factors include any late-2026 flagship drops or benchmark shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
交易量
$3,932结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta and Google lead trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of November because recent benchmarks and releases position Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra as the clear frontier leaders, with the next tier defined by enterprise adoption, open-weight performance, and multimodal capabilities. Google benefits from Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and broad integration across Search and Android, while Meta’s Llama 4 and Muse Spark lines drive developer ecosystem momentum through open releases and competitive coding/reasoning scores. Chinese labs trail on independent indices despite strong open models from Alibaba and Zhipu, and low odds on OpenAI or Anthropic reflect trader consensus that those two occupy the top spots. Key swing factors include any late-2026 flagship drops or benchmark shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$3,932结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETMeta and Google lead trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of November because recent benchmarks and releases position Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra as the clear frontier leaders, with the next tier defined by enterprise adoption, open-weight performance, and multimodal capabilities. Google benefits from Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and broad integration across Search and Android, while Meta’s Llama 4 and Muse Spark lines drive developer ecosystem momentum through open releases and competitive coding/reasoning scores. Chinese labs trail on independent indices despite strong open models from Alibaba and Zhipu, and low odds on OpenAI or Anthropic reflect trader consensus that those two occupy the top spots. Key swing factors include any late-2026 flagship drops or benchmark shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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