**Traders assign an 87.5% probability that Congress will not enact a comprehensive federal AI safety bill before 2027 because legislative momentum remains limited to narrower measures amid partisan divides and a tight remaining timeline.** As of mid-2026, no broad safety framework covering frontier model evaluations, risk assessments, or mandatory standards has advanced to passage, despite multiple introduced proposals such as the TRUMP AMERICA AI Act discussion draft and the AI Risk Evaluation Act. Activity has centered instead on targeted child-safety provisions within the House-passed KIDS Act and efforts to preempt conflicting state rules, reflecting administration priorities for uniform, industry-friendly policy rather than stringent new obligations. With the 119th Congress facing competing priorities and historical challenges in moving omnibus tech legislation, the window for enactment before year-end 2026 appears narrow. State-level AI rules continue to proliferate, further reducing pressure for immediate federal action on comprehensive safety standards.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
13% 概率
$101,400 交易量
$101,400 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 概率
$101,400 交易量
$101,400 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Traders assign an 87.5% probability that Congress will not enact a comprehensive federal AI safety bill before 2027 because legislative momentum remains limited to narrower measures amid partisan divides and a tight remaining timeline.** As of mid-2026, no broad safety framework covering frontier model evaluations, risk assessments, or mandatory standards has advanced to passage, despite multiple introduced proposals such as the TRUMP AMERICA AI Act discussion draft and the AI Risk Evaluation Act.
Activity has centered instead on targeted child-safety provisions within the House-passed KIDS Act and efforts to preempt conflicting state rules, reflecting administration priorities for uniform, industry-friendly policy rather than stringent new obligations. With the 119th Congress facing competing priorities and historical challenges in moving omnibus tech legislation, the window for enactment before year-end 2026 appears narrow. State-level AI rules continue to proliferate, further reducing pressure for immediate federal action on comprehensive safety standards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
交易量
$101,400结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Traders assign an 87.5% probability that Congress will not enact a comprehensive federal AI safety bill before 2027 because legislative momentum remains limited to narrower measures amid partisan divides and a tight remaining timeline.** As of mid-2026, no broad safety framework covering frontier model evaluations, risk assessments, or mandatory standards has advanced to passage, despite multiple introduced proposals such as the TRUMP AMERICA AI Act discussion draft and the AI Risk Evaluation Act.
Activity has centered instead on targeted child-safety provisions within the House-passed KIDS Act and efforts to preempt conflicting state rules, reflecting administration priorities for uniform, industry-friendly policy rather than stringent new obligations. With the 119th Congress facing competing priorities and historical challenges in moving omnibus tech legislation, the window for enactment before year-end 2026 appears narrow. State-level AI rules continue to proliferate, further reducing pressure for immediate federal action on comprehensive safety standards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$101,400结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 87.5% probability that Congress will not enact a comprehensive federal AI safety bill before 2027 because legislative momentum remains limited to narrower measures amid partisan divides and a tight remaining timeline.** As of mid-2026, no broad safety framework covering frontier model evaluations, risk assessments, or mandatory standards has advanced to passage, despite multiple introduced proposals such as the TRUMP AMERICA AI Act discussion draft and the AI Risk Evaluation Act. Activity has centered instead on targeted child-safety provisions within the House-passed KIDS Act and efforts to preempt conflicting state rules, reflecting administration priorities for uniform, industry-friendly policy rather than stringent new obligations. With the 119th Congress facing competing priorities and historical challenges in moving omnibus tech legislation, the window for enactment before year-end 2026 appears narrow. State-level AI rules continue to proliferate, further reducing pressure for immediate federal action on comprehensive safety standards.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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