**Recent U.S. policy developments strongly support the market's 86% probability that the government will not ban an open-source AI model in 2026.** The Trump administration's August 2026 AI guidelines explicitly exempt U.S. open-weight models from the new voluntary pre-release cybersecurity review framework that applies mainly to closed frontier systems from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. This follows June 2026 export controls on Anthropic's closed models (Fable 5 and Mythos 5), which were quickly lifted, and reflects a deliberate choice to promote open models for innovation, global exports, and competition rather than restrict them. Officials, including National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross, have publicly endorsed U.S. open-source AI as strategically valuable, while industry leaders from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have pushed back against blanket restrictions amid concerns over Chinese models. Enforcement challenges for already-released open weights, combined with targeted focus on IP issues or specific foreign threats instead of U.S. open models, make a broad ban unlikely in the remaining months of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
14% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
14% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent U.S. policy developments strongly support the market's 86% probability that the government will not ban an open-source AI model in 2026.** The Trump administration's August 2026 AI guidelines explicitly exempt U.S. open-weight models from the new voluntary pre-release cybersecurity review framework that applies mainly to closed frontier systems from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.
This follows June 2026 export controls on Anthropic's closed models (Fable 5 and Mythos 5), which were quickly lifted, and reflects a deliberate choice to promote open models for innovation, global exports, and competition rather than restrict them. Officials, including National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross, have publicly endorsed U.S. open-source AI as strategically valuable, while industry leaders from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have pushed back against blanket restrictions amid concerns over Chinese models.
Enforcement challenges for already-released open weights, combined with targeted focus on IP issues or specific foreign threats instead of U.S. open models, make a broad ban unlikely in the remaining months of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
交易量
$3,619结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent U.S. policy developments strongly support the market's 86% probability that the government will not ban an open-source AI model in 2026.** The Trump administration's August 2026 AI guidelines explicitly exempt U.S. open-weight models from the new voluntary pre-release cybersecurity review framework that applies mainly to closed frontier systems from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.
This follows June 2026 export controls on Anthropic's closed models (Fable 5 and Mythos 5), which were quickly lifted, and reflects a deliberate choice to promote open models for innovation, global exports, and competition rather than restrict them. Officials, including National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross, have publicly endorsed U.S. open-source AI as strategically valuable, while industry leaders from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have pushed back against blanket restrictions amid concerns over Chinese models.
Enforcement challenges for already-released open weights, combined with targeted focus on IP issues or specific foreign threats instead of U.S. open models, make a broad ban unlikely in the remaining months of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,619结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ET**Recent U.S. policy developments strongly support the market's 86% probability that the government will not ban an open-source AI model in 2026.** The Trump administration's August 2026 AI guidelines explicitly exempt U.S. open-weight models from the new voluntary pre-release cybersecurity review framework that applies mainly to closed frontier systems from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. This follows June 2026 export controls on Anthropic's closed models (Fable 5 and Mythos 5), which were quickly lifted, and reflects a deliberate choice to promote open models for innovation, global exports, and competition rather than restrict them. Officials, including National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross, have publicly endorsed U.S. open-source AI as strategically valuable, while industry leaders from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have pushed back against blanket restrictions amid concerns over Chinese models. Enforcement challenges for already-released open weights, combined with targeted focus on IP issues or specific foreign threats instead of U.S. open models, make a broad ban unlikely in the remaining months of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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