Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined as a highly autonomous system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite rapid frontier model advances like GPT-5.5. Recent April 2026 updates to OpenAI's operating principles emphasized scalable safety and broad AI deployment over singular AGI milestones, signaling tempered expectations amid debates on progress; leaders like DeepMind's Demis Hassabis noted systems are roughly 75-80% toward AGI, with the "last mile" of reliable world models and System 2 reasoning proving hardest. Renegotiated Microsoft partnership removed AGI-triggered clauses, reducing urgency, while ex-OpenAI researchers cited slowing scaling. Upcoming catalysts include potential o1 successor releases or developer conferences, but tight timelines and benchmark gaps sustain skepticism.