Anthropic holds a strong 74% implied probability for second place in the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by September 30 because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models deliver top-tier results on SWE-bench Verified, Terminal-Bench, and multi-file agentic tasks, maintaining close competition after OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra claimed the lead following its early September release. Recent arena updates show Anthropic models consistently ranking in the top three across WebDev-specific ELO ratings and coding benchmarks, supported by 1M context windows, strong tool use, and developer adoption in real workflows. With minimal time left before resolution and no major competing releases imminent, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s reliable positioning behind OpenAI while outpacing Google, Moonshot, Alibaba, and other labs on the relevant metrics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 74.3%
OpenAI 22.1%
阿里巴巴 3.1%
Moonshot <1%
$78,430 交易量
$78,430 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
74%
OpenAI
22%
阿里巴巴
3%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
腾讯
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
<1%
小米
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 74.3%
OpenAI 22.1%
阿里巴巴 3.1%
Moonshot <1%
$78,430 交易量
$78,430 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
$17,861 交易量
74%
OpenAI
$11,639 交易量
22%
阿里巴巴
$17,542 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$12,379 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,537 交易量
1%
腾讯
$1,977 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$2,097 交易量
<1%
Meta
$1,709 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$3,054 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$598 交易量
<1%
$1,766 交易量
<1%
小米
$1,468 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,022 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$617 交易量
<1%
Poolside
$1,035 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,130 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a strong 74% implied probability for second place in the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by September 30 because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models deliver top-tier results on SWE-bench Verified, Terminal-Bench, and multi-file agentic tasks, maintaining close competition after OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra claimed the lead following its early September release. Recent arena updates show Anthropic models consistently ranking in the top three across WebDev-specific ELO ratings and coding benchmarks, supported by 1M context windows, strong tool use, and developer adoption in real workflows. With minimal time left before resolution and no major competing releases imminent, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s reliable positioning behind OpenAI while outpacing Google, Moonshot, Alibaba, and other labs on the relevant metrics.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
交易量
$78,430结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a strong 74% implied probability for second place in the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by September 30 because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models deliver top-tier results on SWE-bench Verified, Terminal-Bench, and multi-file agentic tasks, maintaining close competition after OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra claimed the lead following its early September release. Recent arena updates show Anthropic models consistently ranking in the top three across WebDev-specific ELO ratings and coding benchmarks, supported by 1M context windows, strong tool use, and developer adoption in real workflows. With minimal time left before resolution and no major competing releases imminent, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s reliable positioning behind OpenAI while outpacing Google, Moonshot, Alibaba, and other labs on the relevant metrics.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$78,430结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETAnthropic holds a strong 74% implied probability for second place in the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by September 30 because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models deliver top-tier results on SWE-bench Verified, Terminal-Bench, and multi-file agentic tasks, maintaining close competition after OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra claimed the lead following its early September release. Recent arena updates show Anthropic models consistently ranking in the top three across WebDev-specific ELO ratings and coding benchmarks, supported by 1M context windows, strong tool use, and developer adoption in real workflows. With minimal time left before resolution and no major competing releases imminent, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s reliable positioning behind OpenAI while outpacing Google, Moonshot, Alibaba, and other labs on the relevant metrics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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