Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently anchor the top of major chatbot arenas near 1510 Elo, narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, after a period of incremental gains driven more by fine-tuning and voting volume than breakthrough capability jumps. Progress across frontier labs has slowed since early 2026, with top closed models clustered within roughly 25 points and open-weight entries trailing further behind. Recent August releases such as Grok 4.6, Gemini 3.7 Flash variants, and DeepSeek updates have refined efficiency and agentic features without dramatic Elo lifts, reinforcing trader views that crossing higher arena thresholds will require either a major new model drop or targeted “thinking” optimizations before the end of September.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$152,620 交易量
2026-09-29
1520
12%
1530
5%
1540
5%
1550
1%
$152,620 交易量
1520
$28,568 交易量
12%
1530
$20,883 交易量
5%
1540
$10,551 交易量
5%
1550
$11,875 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently anchor the top of major chatbot arenas near 1510 Elo, narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, after a period of incremental gains driven more by fine-tuning and voting volume than breakthrough capability jumps. Progress across frontier labs has slowed since early 2026, with top closed models clustered within roughly 25 points and open-weight entries trailing further behind. Recent August releases such as Grok 4.6, Gemini 3.7 Flash variants, and DeepSeek updates have refined efficiency and agentic features without dramatic Elo lifts, reinforcing trader views that crossing higher arena thresholds will require either a major new model drop or targeted “thinking” optimizations before the end of September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$152,620结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently anchor the top of major chatbot arenas near 1510 Elo, narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, after a period of incremental gains driven more by fine-tuning and voting volume than breakthrough capability jumps. Progress across frontier labs has slowed since early 2026, with top closed models clustered within roughly 25 points and open-weight entries trailing further behind. Recent August releases such as Grok 4.6, Gemini 3.7 Flash variants, and DeepSeek updates have refined efficiency and agentic features without dramatic Elo lifts, reinforcing trader views that crossing higher arena thresholds will require either a major new model drop or targeted “thinking” optimizations before the end of September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$152,620结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently anchor the top of major chatbot arenas near 1510 Elo, narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, after a period of incremental gains driven more by fine-tuning and voting volume than breakthrough capability jumps. Progress across frontier labs has slowed since early 2026, with top closed models clustered within roughly 25 points and open-weight entries trailing further behind. Recent August releases such as Grok 4.6, Gemini 3.7 Flash variants, and DeepSeek updates have refined efficiency and agentic features without dramatic Elo lifts, reinforcing trader views that crossing higher arena thresholds will require either a major new model drop or targeted “thinking” optimizations before the end of September.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题